Dave Riley, Brisbane
With its majority only slightly trimmed at the February 7 state poll, the Labor government's expected electoral success may have obscured some interesting political trends evident in the poll.
Standing in 72 of the 89 seats, the Queensland Greens received 6.6% of the statewide primary vote, compared with 2.5% in 2001, when they stood in 31 seats. In 10 seats they won more than 10%, including 23% for former ABC presenter Andrew Carroll in Mount Coot-tha. As Greens convenor Drew Hutton told the Courier Mail, "We are the third force now in Queensland politics".
While the Greens failed to win a seat, Hutton's assessment of the result is accurate. The Greens — who have previously not been as successful in Queensland as elsewhere — were able to generate a campaign that harnessed much of the disillusionment with the ALP. However, the just-vote-one strategy adopted by the major parties limited the Greens' role as an arbiter of preferences.
While the Greens were talking up their chances of taking the Brisbane seat of Mt Coot-tha from the ALP, the 23% their high-profile candidate won is not much better than their previous results in that seat. But in South Brisbane, where the Greens have their state offices and can boast a presence going back for over a decade, they almost tripled their previous result.
A significant protest vote could have been expected in such a predictable election. But this wasn't enough to save One Nation. After standing in 51 seats, One Nation was the major loser from the poll. Without active support from Pauline Hanson, the party's support in regional Queensland collapsed, and only one of its three parliamentarians was returned.
No doubt if the US-Australia Free Trade Agreement had been made public before the election, One Nation and the Bob Katter independents, who stood in the so-called sugar seats, could have ridden a local anti-tariff wave. But for the moment, regional and rural Queensland is still stuck with the Nationals.
The Democrats, who have traditionally been weak in Queensland, stood only in one regional seat. Their general absence from the campaign — after the recent spate of internal party problems — doesn't put them in a strong position for the federal poll later this year. With the Greens determined to take a Senate seat, the Democrats may face a bleak future here indeed.
[Dave Riley is a member of the Socialist Alliance]
From Green Left Weekly, February 18, 2004.
Visit the Green Left Weekly home page.