1997: the warmest year in this century
By Norm Dixon
A study released on January 23 reveals that 1997 was the warmest year in this century, further evidence that the planet is getting warmer due to the greenhouse effect.
A team of scientists from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration measured land and ocean temperatures around the globe. They found that the world's average temperatures in 1997 were above the average for the 30-year period before 1990 by the largest amount on record.
The study revealed that the 10 hottest years have occurred since 1981, and the five hottest since 1990.
During December's global warming conference in Kyoto, Japan, specialists attempted to influence the delegates to go beyond safeguarding their respective countries' "national interests" (i.e. the profits and "international competitiveness" of industry) and put the welfare of the vast majority of world's population first.
Dr Eric Chivian, director of Harvard University Medical School's Centre for Health and Global Environment, and Dr Paul Epstein, the centre's associate director, warned that global warming will lead to many deaths through heat waves, violent weather and the spread of tropical diseases.
Epstein reported, "Malaria is now occurring high in the mountains of central Africa and in the highlands of Papua New Guinea. This is exactly the same areas where glaciers are retreating and plants are migrating up mountains."
Chivian told the media that, from a medical point of view, the world cannot wait for global warming to be "proved" absolutely before action is taken. "The principle of prevention is central to the practice of medicine. If you wait for all the information to come in, it may be too late for the patient."
Delegates from the Alliance of Small Island States unsuccessfully argued at Kyoto for rich capitalist countries to cut their greenhouse gas emissions by 20% from 1990 levels by 2005.
It is estimated that a 3-4°C increase by 2100 could produce sea level rises of at least one metre due to the melting of glaciers and polar caps and to heat expansion. A recent UN report says that Kiribati and the Marshall Islands in the Pacific are especially vulnerable, as are the Bahamas in the Caribbean, and the Maldives in the Indian Ocean.
Kinza Clodumar, president of Nauru, in the Pacific, has accused the industrialised capitalist world of "cultural genocide" against the island countries by failing to take serious action to reduce greenhouse emissions.
Nauru covers just 75 square kilometres. The coast, where 10,000 people live, is less than two metres above sea level. "No nation has the right to place its own misconstrued national interest before the physical and cultural survival of entire countries", Clodumar said.
Island delegates at Kyoto reported that they are already suffering unusually high tides and sea surges. The government of the Federated States of Micronesia says people may have to abandon one small atoll because of encroaching seas.
In the Caribbean, a series of destructive hurricanes has led some insurance companies to withdraw coverage from islands. Experts estimate that the cost of sea walls and other construction required to combat greenhouse-induced rises in the Caribbean would cost the region's countries in excess of US$11 billion.
Africans will also suffer. "Africa is where large numbers depend on subsistence agriculture" which needs favourable weather patterns, Quentin Espay, from the South Africa-based Group for Environmental Monitoring, told the Inter-Press Service (IPS) news service.
Most of Africa's exports are agricultural. Experts believe global warming will cause increased desertification and an increase in the frequency and intensity of storms in Africa.
Egypt is one of the 10 countries in the world that experts believe will be most affected by global warming. It has been predicted that 17% of agricultural production and 20% of farmland will be inundated by the sea-level rise in the Nile delta.
"There will be an effect on [Africa's] ecosystems, on agriculture, food security, human settlements and communications", Richard Sherman of South Africa's Environmental Justice Networking Forum told IPS. "The reason why Africa will be adversely affected is that it already has problems with poverty."
"African governments, on behalf of the African people, must insist that the industrialised countries reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to safe levels", says the Kenya-based Climate Network Africa.
Also present at Kyoto, Barnaby Briggs of Birdlife International pointed to a recent study by his group in conjunction with the World Wildlife Fund that documented changes in the behaviour of plants and animals related to environmental warming.
Birds such as the keel-billed toucan have moved to higher elevations in Costa Rica to follow the cloud cover that has been pushed uphill by rising temperatures. Some frogs, newts and toads are spawning earlier to cope with earlier springs. Some types of geese are staying at higher latitudes for winter.
The biggest danger, reports Birdlife, is that the rapid pace of global warming may overwhelm many species' natural ability to adapt to changing habitats.