BY SEAN HEALY
The Burmese military regime has revealed that it has been in secret talks with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi since October, the first face-to-face meetings between the Nobel Peace Prize winner and the generals since 1994. But Burmese democracy activists are cautious, saying that the talks may be a ploy to divide the regime's opponents.
Military figures told United Nations envoy Razali Ismail of the talks during his five-day early January trip to Burma. Ismail was also allowed to visit Suu Kyi, who is under virtual house arrest in her Rangoon home; he was her first visitor for three months.
Ismail declined to provide any details of what was discussed during the talks, but the regime has embarked on a series of what appear to be "confidence-building" measures.
On January 24, the military released Tin Oo, the vice-chairperson of Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy, who had been imprisoned since September 22, when he and Suu Kyi attempted to leave the capital to visit supporters in the countryside. The following day, 84 other NLD supporters were also released — 51 of them had been arrested with Tin Oo in September.
Press reports, quoting unnamed military sources, also claim that the regime has called a halt to its campaign of vilification of Suu Kyi in the country's tightly controlled media. Crude caricatures and personal slanders have long been a staple of regime propaganda against the NLD.
A Rangoon court on January 22 also dismissed a suit by Suu Kyi's brother, Aung San Oo, for half of the family property. The suit was reportedly brought with the generals' backing and its failure may be a result of their withdrawal of support for it.
Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohammad, an ally of the military government fresh from a visit to Rangoon, even told a Japanese newspaper on January 28 that the generals were considering holding elections in 2003.
The talks seem a considerable about-face by the regime, which has gone to great lengths in the past to avoid meeting the popular opposition leader, who won 82% of the vote in the military-annulled 1990 elections.
In December, for example, at a meeting between European and South-East Asian foreign ministers in Laos, the Burmese foreign minister said the generals would only meet with Suu Kyi if she admitted she was wrong.
The most likely reason for the talks is Rangoon's desire to ease its economic difficulties. Foreign investment has plummeted since 1997 and even limited sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe have taken a toll. The country's labour rights record was harshly criticised by the International Labour Organisation in a November report.
The government is also under pressure from other ASEAN nations, especially Thailand, who've been stung by international criticism of their softness on Rangoon.
The timing of the "confidence-building" measures seems to confirm such an analysis — they occurred barely days before a four-day visit to the country by a European Union delegation. The envoys, who arrived on January 29, held talks with regime strongman Khin Nyunt, the head of the feared Military Intelligence Service, and with Suu Kyi.
The chances of the talks between Suu Kyi and the military being anything other than window-dressing for international consumption are slim, especially if Suu Kyi sticks to her repeated statements that real dialogue can only occur if and when the military recognises the results of the 1990 election.
Burmese democracy activists, however, fear that Rangoon may have another ploy in mind — to split the NLD and opposition forces. The NLD includes many figures who were in the past closely aligned with the military and there has been some factional tension in recent months between them, supporters of Suu Kyi and radicals.
The military has effectively used similar negotiating tactics against ethnic insurgent groups, many of whom have signed "ceasefire" agreements in the last five years and ended their rebellions. Others, such as the Karen National Union, who have been unwilling to sign such agreements, have suffered acrimonious splits, with splinter groups emerging backed by Rangoon.