By Ben Kiernan
The Lebanonisation of Cambodia
The Cambodian war seems never ending. The remnants of three previous Cambodian regimes have combined forces to oppose the current one, Hun Sen's State of Cambodia. Its main opponents are Pol Pot's Khmer Rouge forces, backed by China. Pol Pot's two non-communist allies, Prince Sihanouk and Son Sann, are backed by the US.
Last year the United Nations Security Council proposed the latest peace plan, involving disarmament of all parties and free elections. But it is not close to implementation. It insists on a "comprehensive solution" of all issues with the agreement of all parties. These include the Khmer Rouge, who killed 1.5 million Cambodians before Vietnamese troops drove them from power in 1979. The UN plan seeks to give Pol Pot's forces, "the same rights, freedoms and opportunities to take part in the electoral process" as any other Cambodians.
The Hun Sen regime refuses to drop the charge of genocide against the Khmer Rouge. It will disarm its own forces only if the Khmer Rouge does so. Pol Pot's forces could take advantage of the UN plan by caching their weapons and hiding their troops. Pol Pot foreshadowed this in 1988 when he told his commanders that, in the event of a settlement, "Our forces will remain in the jungle for self-defence".
The Khmer Rouge have staged what is being called a remarkable comeback, especially since Vietnamese forces withdrew in 1989. Their key asset has been international recognition of the Khmer Rouge as Cambodia's "legitimate" government. Pol Pot's ambassador still runs Cambodia's Permanent Mission to the UN in New York. This brings massive UN aid to Khmer Rouge forces on the Thai-Cambodian border.
They also get $100 million per year from China, and $50 million from sales of Cambodian rubies in Thailand. Though they could expect at best 20% of a popular vote, the Khmer Rouge have rebuilt a powerful army. Two superpowers' support for their return enables them to wage civil war. A new military regime in Thailand now looks set to help them some more. This Lebanonisation of Cambodia is an international creation.
Meanwhile the Khmer Rouge's only Cambodian opponent, the Hun Sen regime, is denied international aid. A decade of US and UN embargoes has limited the Western aid presence to agencies like Church World Service and Oxfam America. That presence is now more precious than ever, with Soviet aid cut by 80% this year.
Despite calling for a comprehensive solution, Washington embargoes only one side. It is aiding the allies of Pol Pot to the tune of $20 million this year. They are now building their own little "liberated zone", a slice of Lebanon on the Thai border.
They recently attacked a civilian refugee camp in Cambodia, murdering nine people including a pregnant woman and an elderly man, according to an International Committee of the Red Cross
Meanwhile, 30,000 Cambodian refugees wait hopelessly in Thailand.
They are not permitted to leave the camps of the opposition factions who control them. A proposal by Thailand's last elected prime minister for "neutral camps" in which the refugees would be free to move and to choose their future, was opposed by the US. More Lebanon in the making.
Peace in Cambodia should not have to wait till Hanoi is prepared to force the Cambodians to have the Khmer Rouge back, or until Hun Sen is obliged to drop the charge of genocide, or until the genocidists feel ready for a cease-fire. The Khmer Rouge must be bought to justice, not to power. Expecting Cambodians to ignore their crimes is a recipe for unending civil war.
Ben Kiernan is associate professor of history at Yale University and author of How Pol Pot Came to Power.