By Jolyon Campbell
A constitutional crisis has been precipitated in Croatia by the growth of organised opposition to the regime of Franjo Tudjman and the desertion of parliamentary members of the ruling Croatia Democratic Forum (HDZ) to form a new party.
In the elections in 1990, Tudjman and the HDZ won a mandate for commitments to complete independence. Tudjman pledged to carry Croatia into a new era as an autonomous, democratic nation.
The regime he created has disappointed those who hoped for a democratic Croatia and a counter-force against the wave of expansionism unleashed by the Belgrade regime.
Tudjman's ministry, staffed by presidential appointees, has included apparently erratic choices of personal supporters and long-time emigres believed by some to have been connected with the Yugoslav and other intelligence services. Privatisation of state properties has often consisted of transferring them to Tudjman's family and cronies.
Following re-election in 1992, the regime began expounding a racist policy against the Muslim population of Bosnia, and helped mobilise Croat forces in parts of Bosnia in campaigns of ethnic cleansing little different from those initially launched by the Serbian-Chetnik forces.
In recent months, serious revelations have emerged concerning Croatia's military operations. In 1992, for instance, Croatian forces holding the region of Bosanska-Porsavina were ordered to withdraw; 600,000 people, mainly Muslims, were abandoned, and the area was occupied and ethnically cleansed by Serb forces.
When Josip Manolic, a leading HDZ member and president of the upper house of the parliament, protested against Tudjman's cooperation in plans to carve up Bosnia-Hercegovina, Tudjman and his supporters attempted to remove him from the party leadership.
Manolic resigned from the HDZ. On April 30 he, his HDZ colleague Stipe Mesic, president of the lower house, and a grouping of anti-Tudjman dissidents from inside and outside the HDZ, founded the Croatian Independent Democrats (HND). The HND currently appears to hold 15 votes in the upper house, where it has become the largest opposition party, and 7 in the lower.
The upper house returned to session on May 17. HDZ members still held a bare majority and attempted to force a vote to sack Manolic as president of the house. Manolic used his prerogative as speaker to block the vote — an undemocratic feature of the constitution which the HDZ in the past has used to in stifle debate.
This impasse led to a furious round of negotiations behind closed doors. An agreement has been reached for the tasks and powers of the parliamentary presidents to be shared with a number of deputies, including some nominated by opposition parties and by parties of ethnic minorities. A period of 90 days has been set for the drafting of new parliamentary procedures. While the HDZ will control this process, the new rules can be expected to be more democratic than at present, if only because the HDZ faces losing its majority.
The transfer of loyalties from the HDZ to HND is still unfolding. The day before parliament resumed, respected HDZ leader Dr Vedris joined the HND, and it is rumoured that former prime minister Greguric is also likely to join.
The greatest threat to the continued rule of the HDZ is the emergence of a loosely coordinated coalition amongst the opposition parties.