BY TANYA VANAJA
DILI — East Timor's social and political tensions may boil over into violence during elections scheduled for August, the country's first since it gained freedom from Indonesian military rule in 1999.
Riots have broken out in two outlying districts east of Dili, Baucau and Viqueque, in late March, and other disturbances are likely. In Baucau, local gangs angry at what they believed was the Jordanian Rapid Response Unit's heavy-handedness in quelling an intergang fight burned down the mosque where the Jordanians prayed. In Viqueque, two people were macheted to death in fights between local martial arts groups.
The reasons for these fights are clear: most Timorese are still unemployed, houses still stand unrepaired throughout the country and the contrast in living standards between themselves and UN personnel is stark.
But adding to fears of violence are heightened political tensions within and between the main Timorese parties, which culminated in the March 29 declaration by independence leader Xanana Gusmao that he would resign his post as chair of the National Council, which was set up by the UN as a consultative body during the transition to self-government.
The election of the new Constituent Assembly, which would draft a constitution and then likely become the country's first parliament, is set down for August 30, after a six week campaign period from July 15 to August 28. Elections for the country's president are expected after those for the assembly.
Justifying his unexpected action, Gusmao cited "contradictions" between the public and in-chamber positions of the National Council. The council was at "an impasse", he declared, and could progress no further. He said he chose to resign rather than be part of "an irresponsible political process".
His resignation followed a bitter March 28 debate in the National Council, which ended with the rejection of a proposal to form a constitutional commission to oversee the popular consultation process for the new constitution.
Leading the charge against the proposal was Cipriana Pereira, the representative of the moderate-left Fretilin. He accused the proposal's main backer, Aniceto Guterres, the head of the human rights organisation Yayasan Hak, who represents the non-government organisations on the council, of "manipulation" and manoeuvring against the political parties. Pereira claimed Guterres was seeking to undermine his party, which he claimed would otherwise win 95% of the vote at the election.
The Socialist Party of Timor's representative, Avelino Coelho de Silva, argued that such a commission needed to be tied to the Constituent Assembly. Coelho said there was little point expending much-needed funds on forming a commission whose findings might not be supported by a future Constituent Assembly.
The debate about the election regulations, which concluded on March 16, was also frequently bitter. Most controversial was a proposed 30% quota for women in the new assembly.
While council members stated their formal support for the quota, they rescinded a regulation specifying that parties needed to meet the quota in order to receive UN electoral assistance. The decision makes the quota almost impossible to enforce, and prompted a March 16 demonstration by REDE, the East Timor Women's Network.
There are many other hindrances to the election process.
The National Council has passed regulations on registering political parties and an independent electoral commission has been set up to oversee the process. The registration of the civilian population has also begun.
But Gusmao has also criticised the slow pace of voter education programs, intended to educate the population about the basic precepts of democracy, the planned constitution and the voting process. There are also many complaints that the registration process is too strict in its demands for identification papers, many of which were lost in the violence of 1999. Registration hasn't even begun in many districts.
Despite Gusmao's resignation from the chair of the National Council, the head of the United Nations Transitional Administration in East Timor, Sergio Vieira de Mello, has reaffirmed the need for such a body which can legitimise the UN's decisions. "We don't want a legislative vacuum here", he told a non-government organisation forum on March 30.
De Mello has also effectively overridden the National Council's rejection of a constitutional commission, using his authority to set up district constitutional commissions to gather the results of village-level consultations conducted by NGOs.