BY JORGE JORQUERA
On November 24, former army colonel Lucio Gutierrez comfortably won the Ecuadorean presidential elections as the candidate of the Patriotic Society January 21 (SP21) alliance and Pachakutik, the main national Indigenous people's organisation.
Gutierrez's victory was made possible by the continued popular protests against Ecuador's neo-liberal regime and the increasing social and political fragmentation of the country's ruling class.
Gutierrez was supported by the powerful Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador, the National Confederation of Peasant, Indigenous and Black Organisations, the Indigenous Council of Free Organisations of the Centre of Ecuador, the peasant organisation Seguro Campesino and the National Teachers Union.
The former colonel was also backed by a number of left organisations, most notably the Popular Democratic Movement (MDP), which is the electoral front of the Ecuadorean Communist Party (Marxist-Leninist). The social movements mobilised the votes of the poor, especially Indigenous communities, to ensure Gutierrez's place in the two-candidate second round of the presidential election. Gutierrez topped the vote in the first round on October 20 with 20.6% of the vote.
Ecuador's richest man, billionaire banana magnate Alvaro Noboa, was Gutierrez's opponent in the second round. The traditional parties — the Social-Christian Party, the Roldosista Party, the Democratic Left and Popular Democracy — were squeezed out by the anti-neo-liberal populism of both Gutierrez and Noboa.
Aiming to capture the votes of Ecuador's increasingly insecure middle-class — which normally votes for the traditional parties — Gutierrez swapped his army fatigues for a suit, added some well-known neo-liberal economic advisers to his entourage, moderated his platform and directed significant energy into calming the worries of Washington, as well as the national and regional elites. This included a commitment to maintain the US Manta military base and honouring Ecuador's International Monetary Fund and World Bank commitments.
The new president's program for reform includes an anti-corruption campaign, a reduction in poverty levels, a special emphasis on increased investment in education, health and job creation, an improved social security system, greater environmental protection and improving the economy's competitiveness.
Neo-liberalism
The national elites in Latin America, fearing the growing political assertiveness of their populations, want leaders like Gutierrez and Brazil's new president Lula da Silva to engineer a softer form of neo-liberalism and defuse the growing mass protest movements.
Even if they wanted to, such governments cannot restrain the growth of social protest movements, given their current independence and militancy. Nor is it in their power to slow transnational capital's drive to appropriate more of Latin America's wealth. Especially now that this drive is strengthened by powerful position of US imperialism.
Ecuador's 12 million people are among the poorest in Latin America, with 70% currently living in poverty and another 10% who have been driven into exile in search of better prospects. The official unemployment rate is 10% and under-employment is 60%. Since January 2000, average wages have dropped 50%.
Apart from oil, Ecuador's income from exports is dependent on primary products, the prices of which are continuing to drop. After oil, the second highest national income earner is remittances from Ecuadoreans abroad.
The structural weaknesses have only been exaggerated by the government's neo-liberal recipes. Ecuador is a country with historically minimal public infrastructure and local industry, for example, 70% of local roads only function in summer. Measures such as the dollarisation of the economy have destroyed the competitiveness of local firms, further marginalising rural communities dependent on itinerant work in the export industries. Privatisation has reduced government income and further restricted public expenditure.
To make Gutierrez's task more difficult, the outgoing government and the IMF legislated to strictly regulate the servicing of the national debt. Not only does this stipulate that some 50% of the national budget must be directed towards debt repayments, but it also places much of Ecuador's oil profits under the control of international agencies to ensure government compliance with debt repayment.
Recent foreign investment in the oil industry, with its stimulation of the construction sector, have kept Ecuador from sinking completely.
To service the debt, in 2001 Ecuador paid US$1.7 million — the equivalent of 2.5 times the total combined expenditure on education, culture, health, agriculture and community development. Any attempts by Gutierrez to tamper with the IMF's recipes would meet with severe penalties from the "market".
Political instability
Gutierrez also faces major political constraints. Of the 100 members of parliament, only 17 belong to his alliance. Another 15 from the Roldosista Party and three from the MDP have agreed to join his government.
This parliamentary situation is a reflection of the crisis of "bourgeois representation" in Ecuador. With some important old oligarchic ties corroded by neo-liberal policy, the fabric of ruling-class hegemony in much of Latin America is being strained. This has left many old bourgeois forces struggling to find support. It's hard to build a program for national stability simply around complying with the demands of international financial agencies and the US state department.
With Ecuador in an economic straightjacket, the traditional parties having been discredited and the mass movement mobilising for real reforms that will make the lives of the poor better, Gutierrez will have little room for national consensus building. He must either side with the demands of the poor — triggering a Venezuela-style crisis — or succumb to the pressure of the IMF and Washington and risk being toppled by the mass movement like so many of his recent predecessors.
If the mass movement proves capable of developing its political vision and organisation, it could also attract the support of the army's junior officers and soldiers who are sympathetic to Gutierrez's pledge to the poor.
The Ecuadorean people have shown what they are capable of in struggle. The popular rebellion of January 21, 2000, overthrew the government and declared the "Parlamentos Populares" as the national government, establishing a three-person National Salvation Committee which included Gutierrez. The new president's credibility among the poor stems from this.
Since that high, the movement has sought various ways to advance to its goal of developing a political alternative to neoliberalism, the election of Gutierrez being the latest. This may well prove useful, but more struggle will be required if the question of how Ecuador's working people and poor can take power and hold it is to be answered.
From Green Left Weekly, December 4, 2002.
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