Norman Brewer, Bremen
The latest opinion poll suggests that the centre-left Social Democrat-Greens federal government of Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder will fail to win enough seats in the September 18 federal parliament election to retain government. However, the poll also suggests that the opposition Christian Democrats, led by Angela Merkel, and their centre-right allies, the Free Democrats, would not win enough seats in the federal parliament to be able to form a government.
A random survey of 1000 voters, taken in early September by Infratest dimap for ARD public television, showed support for the Christian Democrats running at 41%. The Free Democrats, would get 6.5%. Support for Schroeder's Social Democrats has jumped over the last month from 30% to 34% and his Green Party coalition partners remained steady on 7%.
Both the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats advocate implementation of neoliberal "free market" policies, including big cuts to pensions and other social welfare payments.
Reporting the results of the opinion poll, the September 9 Paris-based International Herald Tribune observed that these figures "would make it impossible for the Social Democrats and Greens to govern, largely because of the influence of the new radical Left Party of former communists and former Social Democrats. It could win 8.5% of the votes, which in the past probably would have been destined for Schroeder's party."
The IHT reported that the figures had led pollsters to speculate that "Merkel might in fact have no choice but to share government with the Social Democrats as her junior partner in what is called 'a grand coalition'.
"The idea horrifies Elmar Brok, a leading Christian Democrat and member of the European Parliament. 'It would be a disaster for the [neoliberal economic] reforms and for the stability of the country', said Brok, who was campaigning in his constituency in Gutersloh, western Germany ...
"Even if the Social Democrats adopted 'a real spirit of cooperation with the Christian Democrats and even worked for reforms', Brok said the parliamentary opposition would be led by the Left Party, which would only grow in support at the expense of the Social Democrats."
The Left Party — the renamed former east Germany-based Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) — has included on its party ticket candidates of the new west German-based WASG (Electoral Alternative for Jobs and Social Justice).
Left Party leader Lother Bisky and WASG secretary Klaus Ernst have announced that they plan to fast track the fusion of the WASG and Left Party. Initially, that unification process was expected to take at least two years. But now, Left Party sources say they want to see the unification carried through possibly before the end of this year.
Ernst has proposed that the unification be completed "before the end of next year", which is when the next Berlin state election is due to be held. Currently, the Left Party is the junior partner in the Social Democrat-led Berlin state government.
In other German states, WASG activists have announced that for the next state elections they will invite the Left Party to run candidates on open WASG lists.
Ernst has emphasised that to achieve an equal footing with the Left Party, the WASG needs "to first build a strong left party in the west".
The Left Party currently has 60,000 members, but only 5000 of them live in western Germany. By contrast, the WASG has 10,000 members, but 90% of them live in western Germany.
The importance of the WASG for the German left is its influence and work in the western part of the country, where the PDS — formed by the pro-socialist members of the former Socialist Unity Party (SED), the ruling Stalinist party in East Germany — never really got a foothold.
The WASG has significant support among trade unionists and activists in the other social movements of western Germany. Its formation and growth has revitalised the fortunes of the German socialist left. "'Left can no longer be denounced and translated into SED", says Ernst.
The alliance with the WASG has enabled the Left Party to increase its electoral support in western Germany from a mere 1-2% to 7%, while retaining its traditional 30% support in eastern Germany.
Since the WASG formed last year, the Social Democratic Party has lost 200,000 members and its national membership has fallen 600,000.
While some in the Left Party favour entering a federal coalition government as the junior partner of the Social Democrats, under pressure from the WASG the Left Party leadership has announced that it won't support another Schroeder-led government or his neoliberal Agenda 2010.
From Green Left Weekly, September 14, 2005.
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