Comment by Dave Riley
BRISBANE — If you were perhaps fearing that the Hanson band wagon would proceed unchecked, worry no more. The Australian Labor Party has left its best to last: one time battlers' hero and local identity Wayne Goss is keen to take her on.
The good people of the electorate of Oxley may remember Wayne as the Inala boy who made good. Some of the shine may have gone from Gossnost, but when you think about it — stuck in a rut without an obvious career path — an ex-premier is probably the best the ALP can offer. (Mind you, ex-premiers are something the party has in ample supply.)
Goss' offer coincides with the proposed redrawing of the Oxley boundaries so that it would include significant sections of his state seat of Logan. Hence the chances of wresting Oxley back for the ALP have never been better — better, that is, in all of the 18 months since the party lost it. Keen to reclaim its own, the ALP wants Oxley back — and who could begrudge them their right to it?
If you are now breathing a sigh of relief with the knowledge that Ms Hanson is sure to meet her comeuppance at the hands of Wayne Goss, you are best advised not to relax just yet.
With a local preselection battle already bubbling, Goss' grasp of the Oxley nomination may not be such a firm grip after all. Already he has been accused from within the party of having contributed to the rise of Pauline Hanson by overseeing the remaking of Queensland at the price of workers' jobs.
Hanson also has the option of parking her bandwagon next door in the new rural seat of Blair, which stretches into the heart of Bjelke-Petersen country around Kingaroy. This would mean abandoning her quest to become the voice of the urban battler and, in turning to the bush, establishing One Nation at the expense of the National Party.
But the real question, unstated by any of the key players in this battle for Oxley, is whether Hanson will instead stand as a Senate candidate during the next federal poll.
She won Oxley almost by default as a listed Liberal candidate, and her credentials have not been tested since. The Hanson profile may be high but ready representation of her constituents has not been seen as a priority.
So Hanson's ability to hang onto Oxley may depend on a preference deal with the Liberal Party; and if that can help One Nation to hold its own in the Brisbane River valley, how helpful would such a deal with the Coalition partners be in more traditionally conservative seats?
The ALP is keen to force Hanson into a Senate contest where she'll draw votes primarily from the National Party. With the Nationals' grassroots suffering from years of drought, poor commodity prices and more than a decade of rural restructuring, party support is wavering.
Premier Rob Borbidge's reluctance to move to an early state election is due to this factor. Despite his rhetorical surge to capture ground from Hanson over Wik, the National Party in Queensland is experiencing a crisis.
As a smug moralistic populism — so reminiscent of the Bjelke-Petersen years — descends over the state Coalition government, its rightward preferences divorce it more from the urban heartland that begrudgingly gave it government for want of anything better.
If Hanson is let loose in a Senate contest, it is from the Nationals that she will draw further support. And if you've been wondering why the likes of Bill O'Chee and Bob Katter Jr have been so noisy over Wik and ATSIC, it's because Queensland National Party senators will be the first to fall.
In the meantime, Labor can sit back and wait. So long as the anti-Hanson sentiment is contained within the polling booth and anti-racist activity remains focused on One Nation and the need for reconciliation, the residents of Inala may yet see their local boy in Canberra. Unfortunately, the spectre of racism is sure to remain despite Hanson's absence from Oxley and Wayne Goss' generous offer of a career move to thwart it.