By Frank Noakes
Protests in Belgrade indicate a growing opposition to President Slobodan Milosevic's attempts to create a Greater Serbia at the expense of Serbia's neighbours.
The day after a church-organised procession calling for peace, students at Belgrade University barricaded themselves in, calling for Milosevic to resign. According to the Guardian Weekly, "The deans of 29 faculties joined more than 10,000 students demanding a government of national salvation".
Since before his election in 1987, Milosevic has sought to create and maintain support based on Serbian chauvinism. Initially, this was directed against the Albanian majority in the autonomous province of Kosovo, whose legal autonomy was wiped out in violation of the Yugoslav federal constitution.
But the brutality directed against Kosovo contributed to convincing other non-Serbians, particularly Slovenes and Croats, that there was no hope of national equality within Yugoslavia. This mood was evident in the massive votes for independence in the two republics in December 1990 and May 1991.
The early aim of the Milosevic leadership was the preservation of Yugoslavia as a Serbian-dominated prison-house of republics. But during the brief war in Slovenia, it became apparent that the federal army, on its own, could not be relied upon to complete the military subjugation of the republics. Many soldiers, particularly non-Serbs, refused to carry out orders — many in fact deserted and joined the territorial armies opposing the federal army.
Milosevic therefore turned to armed extreme nationalist groups to do his dirty work, in particular the monarchist Chetniks. As well, his goals changed. Since it was impossible to maintain Yugoslavia, the goal became an enlarged Serbia, preferably under the cover of a new "Yugoslav" federation of Serbia and Montenegro. The wars thus begun have so far created an estimated 1.5 million refugees.
In Bosnia-Hercegovina, the object of all outside players, including the EC, is to divide the republic into cantons. Here the Croatian leadership has played a less than savoury role in conspiring with Serbia.
Behind the backs of the Muslim majority, under plans reportedly worked out between Serbian and Croatian negotiators, the republic would be divided to the advantage of Serbia and Croatia, artificially carving out a small area for the majority Muslims. The fighting has already largely created "ethnically pure" cantons through the forced mass migration of various ethnic groups.
Even though, at least initially, these Serb and Croat cantons would be ina, they would be controlled, through local representatives, by Belgrade and Zagreb respectively.
There are signs that Milosevic may now turn his attack on the southern republic of Macedonia. The Greek government, which has blocked EC recognition of Macedonia, may well support its forcible reintegration into the new "Yugoslavia".
Belgrade evidently hopes that the territory it has forcibly acquired will be officially recognised by the United Nations and that the UN will even guarantee these new borders when the fighting stops. This is still a strong possibility, following perhaps some minor concessions by Milosevic.
The only real winner from such a situation will be international capital. The national divisions, deliberately provoked, within the old Yugoslavia will weaken each community in its future fights against IMF and World Bank-imposed austerity measures.
The IMF is already sitting on a $1 billion loan until the situation is resolved. Jeffrey Sachs, the Harvard free market whiz of Bolivia and Poland fame, has already been through Slovenia, peddling his brand of shock therapy for the shattered economy there.
German business interests, in particular, are well placed to take advantage of the war-ravaged and economically wrecked newly independent states.