BY JIM GREEN
A US-led attack on Iraq is likely to result in between 48,000 and 260,000 deaths during the first three months of combat. Post-war health effects could result in a further 200,000 deaths, according to a report by the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, released on November 12.
The report, Collateral Damage: The Health and Environmental Costs of War on Iraq, bases its estimates on data from the 1991 Gulf War (which resulted in an estimated 205,000 casualties), from comparable conflicts elsewhere and from the most reliable recent information on the health status of Iraq.
Collateral Damage forecasts not only a huge death toll from a war but also a massive humanitarian crisis and long-term health and environmental damage. The aftermath of an attack could include civil war, famine, epidemics, millions of refugees and economic collapse. Destabilisation and possible regime change in countries neighbouring Iraq are also possible, as well as more terrorist attacks across the world. A global economic crisis may be triggered by a reduction in trade and soaring oil prices.
The financial costs will be enormous. The report estimates that the spending on arms, the expense of occupying Iraq, the provision of relief aid and the cost of reconstruction could exceed US$150-200 billion. The US is likely to spend $50-200 billion on the war and $5-20 billion annually on the occupation. The report notes that $100 billion would fund the health needs of the world's poorest people for four years.
In the report's "worst-case scenario", US and/or UK nuclear weapons could be fired on Iraq in response to a chemical and biological attack by Iraq on Kuwait and Israel, leaving 3.9 million people dead.
In Australia, the report was launched at Parliament House in Canberra by Dr Sue Wareham, president of the Medical Association for the Prevention of War (the Australian chapter of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War).
"If Prime Minister John Howard already understands the human effect of modern warfare then he has a responsibility to justify to the Australian people our likely involvement in this carnage. If he does not understand, then this report is essential reading for him. But let him not pretend that he just doesn't know", Wareham said.
General Peter Gration, former chief of the Australian Defence Force and an opponent of a war on Iraq, said of the report: "This is no exaggerated tract by a bunch of zealots. It is a coldly factual report by health professionals who draw on the best evidence available... By reminding us of the likely monumental human and environmental costs of a new war with Iraq, it has made a major contribution to the debate at a critical time."
Collateral Damage is on the internet at <http://www.medact.org>.
From Green Left Weekly, November 20, 2002.
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