The 17th Trilateral Defence Ministers’ meeting of Australia, United States and Japan took place for the first time in Garramilla/Darwin on November 17.
The big announcement coming out it is that Japan will station its Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade in the Northern Territory, to be deployed alongside Australian and US troops.
US troops have been stationed in Garramilla since President Barrack Obama’s 2011 US “pivot to Asia”. About 2500 marines are on permanent rotation through the NT, as part of a number of US force posture initiatives, which became official in 2014.
The “pivot” was widely seen as a declining US preparing for a possible war against China.
The December 2022 AUSMIN meeting, in Brisbane, first proposed including Japan in the US war games in the NT.
The Garramilla meeting discussed this broadening of AUKUS, as well as potential triggers for war on China, including if it invaded Taiwan.
“This is going to build interoperability between our two countries — between our three countries — I should say,” defence minister Richard Marles said. “It’s an important statement to the region and to the world about the commitment that our three countries have in working with each other.”
In response to a question about concerns the US would not be able to supply several US Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the 2030s, along with whether the AUKUS pact will continue under the new Trump administration, US defence secretary Lloyd Austin said there is no reason to worry.
Interoperability underpins AUKUS
“We’ve announced trilateral cooperation on F-35s. We’re working to integrate Japan into US-Australia force posture cooperation in Australia,” Austin said. “And Japan and Australia have exercised their reciprocal access agreement through deployments to each other’s countries.”
Austin confirmed Garramilla as “a focal point” for the expanding cooperation between the three nations, in which Japan will be incorporated into the US Marine Rotational Force Darwin in Northern Australia.
He pushed “interoperability” as the principle that underpins the ever-expanding AUKUS pact.
Interoperability refers to defence forces of different countries acting together effectively in military operations.
US and Australian ministers have stressed the need for interoperability since the beginning of AUKUS, even though it appears to translate as US command over Australia’s forces.
Force posture is the ability of a military to launch a military action outside of its regular jurisdiction. Tony Abbott’s Coalition formalised the initiatives under the 2014 US-Australia Force Posture Agreement.
There are three main initiatives: US marines stationed in the NT; increasing interoperability of air forces; and providing the US with unimpeded access to dozens of bases.
Washington takes control of classified “agreed facilities and areas” when it decides to upgrade one.
The US is currently overhauling RAAF Base Tindal in the NT, which includes a storage facility for six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers, which are aimed at China.
And as for whether they will include nuclear warheads, Australia abides by the US policy of warhead ambiguity: we will have no idea.
Marles bragged at the AUSMIN conference in August that “American force posture now in Australia involves every domain: land, sea, air, cyber and space”.
AUKUS failures
PM Anthony Albanese launched the AUKUS “optimal pathway” in March last year, in San Diego, after the Coalition under Scott Morrison launched the new military alliance with US President Joe Biden in 2021. Then Australia committed to buy eight nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs).
Despite Australia paying $4.6 billion to US and British SSN industrial bases, both countries can pull out with a year’s notice. The US also has provisions within its AUKUS law that allow it to renege on providing submarines.
But what appears guaranteed under AUKUS is Submarine Rotational Force-West, which is a permanent US-UK SSN presence at HMAS Stirling in Western Australia by 2027. This will involve the stationing of 700 US Army personnel and their families.
Last month, a new law establishing two nuclear waste dumps — at Stirling in WA and south of Kaurna Yerta/Adelaide — was passed.
Another AUKUS surprise was Labor’s decision, in Washington, to list Australia as a US domestic military source. This will give the US greater access to local minerals.
Promote peace instead
“Australia should be at the forefront of promoting peace in our region — not inviting more countries to join the AUKUS fold on Australian soil, which entails military intention to wage war against China,” Tutty said.
IPAN said the Japanese decision directly contravenes article 9 of its Constitution which “renounces war as a means to settle international disputes and prohibits Japan from maintaining military forces”.
Japanese defence minister Gen Nakatani attended the Garramilla meeting.
Along with Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to fire long-range US missiles into Russian territory, the decision to station Japanese troops in Garramilla seems like the outgoing Democrat administration wants to bed down its longer-term military aims before the Republicans take over.
However, Austin said the incoming Trump administration has the same vision for AUKUS. He also said the US would meet its submarine production goals. Biden, and Obama before him, has been pushing for Australia to be a forward base for an upcoming war on China.
It is early days, but the Trump administration appears to be more concerned about waging an economic war against Beijing, via the imposition of a 60% tariff regime, while its other signature policy is the mass deportation of thousands of undocumented immigrants.
[Paul Gregoire is a Sydney-based journalist and writer. This article was first published at Sydney Criminal Lawyers.]