By Norm Dixon
Zimbabwe's government has been painted into a corner by the growing dissatisfaction of the country's urban poor and the working class on the one hand, and the demands of big business and western financial institutions on the other.
Attempts by President Robert Mugabe to offer concessions to the angry masses without threatening capitalist interests have been stymied by business and western non-cooperation. Forced to choose between the demands of the poor and those of the local elite and their imperialist allies, Mugabe has sided with the latter.
On January 19, a massive spontaneous rebellion erupted in the poor suburbs of the capital, Harare, after the price of mealie meal — corn flour, the staple food for most Zimbabweans — increased by 21%. The price of mealie meal has risen by more than 80% since October.
The rebellion, led by unemployed youth and women, spread from the poor southern suburbs into the overcrowded inner-city areas then overflowed into the CBD. Barricades were thrown up. Supermarkets and shops were looted. Riot police fired tear gas and shot at demonstrators' legs with live ammunition. Airforce helicopters fired tear gas canisters from the air.
Shocked at the response of the poor, the government ordered the withdrawal of the price increase. Commerce minister Nathan Shamuyarira accused "white" milling companies of profiteering and said the price deregulation demanded by the IMF and western donors was responsible. He promised the government would review the prices of all basic commodities.
Shamuyarira's attempt to shift the responsibility for the increases away from the government did not convince the protesters, whose chants blamed both the milling companies and the government. The poor are well aware that the Zimbabwean government fully supports the IMF-designed "market reforms".
Protesters demanded the reintroduction of subsidies on bread, mealie meal, cooking oil and other basics which were abolished as part of the "reforms" six years ago. Shamuyarira quickly rejected a return of price controls.
While the milling companies undoubtedly have profiteered, it was the government's Grain Marketing Board that lifted the price of corn sold to the milling companies — by 36% in October, 20% at the beginning of January and around 20% most recently.
As the protests continued on January 20, the government put the army on full alert and deployed troops. Home affairs minister Dumiso Dabengwa stated bluntly: "The army is not trained to use baton sticks, the army carries guns and live ammunition, and they will not hesitate to shoot any people who are trouble makers." President Mugabe threatened a state of emergency.
Anger has been building in Zimbabwe. The latest upsurge follows increased taxes and a plummeting exchange rate which has hit workers and the poor hard, with the price of basic commodities rising more than 25% across the board. Real wages have dropped 30% since 1990; 80% of workers earn less than US$200 a month. Unemployment is near 50% of the work force and rising sharply.
Zimbabweans are increasingly impatient for the fruits of liberation that were promised them in 1980. Seventeen years later, they still suffer from housing shortages, poor education and inadequate health services. The long-promised land redistribution has yet to eventuate.
There is open resentment at the fact that the main beneficiaries of "liberation" have been a tight circle of elites. Wealthy commercial farmers and capitalists — mostly white, but with a growing number of black entrepreneurs who have benefited from the "indigenisation" of parts of the economy — have prospered.
This dissatisfaction has been expressed in a series of struggles over recent months that have shaken the Mugabe regime. In July, veterans of the liberation war launched a militant campaign to demand long-promised decent pensions and to protest the looting of their pension fund by high-ranking government and party officials. Veterans targeted Mugabe directly, disrupting the president's speech at the usually solemn Heroes' Day ceremony on August 11.
Fearing the liberation fighters' movement may galvanise the general dissatisfaction of the Zimbabwe people, Mugabe was forced to agree on August 27 to pay all veterans a tax-free pension of about US$170 a month and a one-off payment of $4000. The total pay-out amounted to Z$4 billion (US$215 million).
In a further attempt to defuse popular anger, Mugabe announced in October that some 5 million hectares would be nationalised and redistributed to black families. He toured the country declaring that no compensation would be paid to the mainly white farmers affected, in defiance of the constitution. "If the British government wants us to compensate its children, it must give us the money or do the compensation itself", Mugabe railed.
In 1980, Britain promised to fund land redistribution only as long as land was acquired on a "willing seller-willing buyer" basis. For 17 years Mugabe has periodically threatened to take land from the 4500 or so commercial farmers. In 1982, Mugabe promised to resettle 162,000 black families within three years. The promise was not kept.
Western governments, foreign investors and the IMF were aghast at Mugabe's theatrical "populist" turn and immediately tightened the screws. The IMF let it be known that US$200-250 in pending loans would be withheld if the war veterans' pay-out led to an increase in the budget deficit. The British Labour government ruled out paying compensation for confiscated farms. Investors' disapproval led to a sudden 40% devaluation of the Zimbabwe dollar and a stock market crash.
The government assured worried IMF officials that it would fund veteran pensions and land compensation through increased taxes and reduced government spending. The government drafted a range of new taxes, including a 5% "war veteran's levy" on all wage earners, a 2.5% jump in sales taxes, and a 5% increase in petrol, diesel and electricity prices.
In an unprecedented act of disobedience, reflecting the pressure of the people, the ZANU-PF-dominated parliament rejected the package in early December. Mugabe was further embarrassed when a congress of the ZANU-PF endorsed parliament's decision. The government hurriedly dropped the planned levy on incomes.
When the government moved to impose the sales tax and price hikes through administrative fiat, the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) called a general strike on December 9. The strike, the largest in Zimbabwe's history, was observed throughout the country. Mass rallies were held in all Zimbabwe's major cities, with 50,000 attending in Bulawayo and 20,000 each in several provincial capitals.
In Harare, a "banned" rally attended by thousands of workers was attacked by riot police armed with batons and tear gas. Earlier in the day, cops had attempted to seal off the city centre to prevent workers from gathering. Workers fought back and running battles continued throughout the day.
True to form, government ministers said "whites" were behind the strike. Dabengwa warned workers that, "if they stretch police patience too far, they would not hesitate to shoot them". On December 11, ZCTU secretary general Morgan Tsvangirai was attacked in his office by thugs from the ruling party. His head wound needed 45 stitches.
The day before the most recent anti-austerity rebellion, it was revealed that Mugabe had agreed to drop the farm nationalisation plan. The World Bank and the European Union demanded and received written undertakings from the government that land reform would not violate the constitution (which rules out confiscation) or increase its budget deficit. In return, the EU released US$23 million in loans and the World Bank agreed to hand over $60 million.
There is only enough money set aside in the land reform budget to buy 10 farms, not sufficient even to secure the land of 60 farmers willing to sell, let alone the 1500 farms which were to be nationalised.