New Zealand is in the process of shifting to a new electoral system. The new proportional system will mean a greater representation of alternative forces and the erosion of the established parties, argues Keith Locke.
Locke is the preselected candidate in an Auckland seat for the Alliance (which groups NewLabour, the Greens, the Maori party Mana Motuhake and several smaller parties). He spoke to Green Left Weekly recently during a brief visit to Australia.
"The existing first past the post system has worried people for years", said Locke. "People have been frustrated by the stranglehold of the Labour and National parties. It has been very difficult for any third party to get any significant standing in parliament through the first past the post system."
Locke said that third parties were receiving notable percentages of the vote but not gaining seats in parliament that reflected the vote.
"The Social Credit Party, which started up in 1954, managed to get about 20% of the vote in one election but found it very difficult to get seats. The seats it did gain over the years were through by-elections, with one or two exceptions. They've never had a representation greater than two in the parliament.
"The NewLabour Party and the Greens in the 1990 election also found it very difficult to get representation ... the Greens, who got about 9% of the vote, didn't get any seats at all. That added to people's frustration with the two-party system.
"People were rejecting the Labour government, but many of those people didn't want to go to National because they saw National as much the same thing, and they turned out to be quite correct."
Voters switched between Labour and National as a way of rejecting the incumbent government, making elections a negative process of voting against policies rather than for policies.
"Many people switched from National to Labour in 1984, not necessarily because they were pro-Labour. They were just reacting against Nationals. Similarly in 1990, people switched from Labour to National because they rejected the Labour government", says Locke.
"This frustration forced the government to call a royal commission on the electoral system. The royal commission came up with a proposal for an MMP system, for Multi-Member Proportional, based on the German model with some differences."
After the royal commission reported its findings in 1987, the Labour government "would have liked to have swept it under the carpet, but the pressure was so great that the government ended up buckling and calling a referendum. We wanted a decisive referendum, but it turned out to be a two-stage referendum." The first part of the referendum was held last September 19. It pitted the existing system against four alternative systems: MMP, a supplementary transferable vote system and two systems similar to preferential voting and transferable voting systems operating in Australia.
The proportional system "had the momentum", gaining over 70% of the vote, while first past the post "was rejected by 85% of the population, which was not only a rejection of the electoral system but in fact a rejection of the Labour and National parties".
Locke argues, "Even though the majority of those 85% voted Labour or National, they voted for proportional representation because they had voted for Labour and National reluctantly.
"There are very few people in New Zealand who actually agree wholeheartedly with the party they vote for, whether it be Labour or National."
The second part of the referendum will be held in October or November, as part of the general elections. The referendum will pose the Multi-Member Proportional system against first past the post. Locke says MMP "will win handsomely".
Legislation being drafted to enact the new system proposes a 120 member parliament, made up of 60 "electorate seats" and the other half "list seats".
"The electorate seats are determined in the first past the post manner, but each person has two votes", explains Locke, "one for an electorate seat and one for a party list.
"If a party list gets 25% of the vote and it has only received 10% of the electorate seats, then it is topped up to 25% from the list seats, so every party ends up with exactly the proportion of seats, as close as can be mathematically worked out, as the percentage it got in the vote.
"If you get 50% of the vote, you get 60 seats, regardless of how many electorate seats you may have won."
Locke estimates that under the MMP system, the Alliance would win 27-28 seats, polling around 22%. MMP will make a big impact on the composition of parliament, enabling smaller parties to have a realistic representation. According to Locke, MMP will destabilise existing parties, and electorate reaction against harsh policies will be sharper.
"There are already indications within the National Party that some of the MPs are carving out space for a new party. So the National Party will break up to one degree or another after the next election, as the MMP system approaches.
"We are moving into a situation where we may not just have Labour, National and Alliance. This legislation says you've got to get 4% of the vote to get into parliament, and there may be four parties that get 4% of the vote, maybe five, to get elected through the list system. There may be others who get in just through winning individual seats."