By Sean Malloy
It has been another harsh year for Palestinians. For those in exile it has been a year of frustrating diplomatic work, while at the same time re-winning some ground in the sphere of international support. For Palestinians in the occupied territories it has been a year of increasing Israeli terror and a resurgence of the intifada.
At the peace negotiations Israel continues to argue for a system of Palestinian administration of Israeli occupation. Israeli plans would create "an apartheid system", noted Palestinian spokesperson Hanan Ashrawi.
UN resolutions 242 and 338, stipulating Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories and Palestinian self-determination, have not been addressed by Israel in any practical form during the negotiations.
The Palestinian delegation doubts how serious the US is in its calls for a "lasting peace". The October 1991 invitation by the US to participants of the conference states clearly that the negotiations were to be based on UN resolutions 242 and 338. Since the opening of the conference US pressure on Israel has backed off while pressure on Palestinians to concede everything has grown.
Leading up to the peace conference US interests and Israeli interests clashed. Israel wants to retain cheap Palestinian labour and the resources of the occupied territories while the US wants peace on its terms in the region, which means a solution, on US terms, to the Palestinian question.
Israel aims to keep the status quo. The US wants a formulation that will calm things down in the region, such as Palestinian administration of Israeli occupation or a confederation under Jordanian control, but it does not want a secular democratic Palestinian state established which could act as an example of independence or be a politically radicalising pole in the region.
The election of Bill Clinton may change this. Clinton's personal allegiance to Israel, spurred on by 85% of the Jewish vote, may result in US policy shifting to let Israel continue the occupation unabated. But there has also been speculation that Secretary of State James Baker will be back to oversee the negotiations, which means pressure on the Palestinians to accept occupation with a Palestinian "administration".
Syria and Jordan have both stepped ahead in developing relations with Israel during the negotiations. Syria and Israel are seriously discussing a peace treaty which may include Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights or a lease-back arrangement.
The Jordanian and Israeli delegations have moved into discussing borders, arms control, environment, health, education as well as water cates that normalisation of relations between Israel and Jordan is also a possibility.
Separate agreements between Israel and Syria or Jordan would mean abandonment of support for Palestinians at the negotiations, scrapping the notion of Arab/Israeli peace treaties linked to Palestinian self- determination. Without support from Arab countries in the region Palestinian's odds at gaining self-determination are severely narrowed.
"Israel has correctly assessed that the Palestinian position is hopelessly weak without effective support from either the Arab world or elsewhere. That is why it now vigorously pursues a separate Camp David style agreement with Syria. This will leave the Palestinians totally isolated and forced to accept whatever suits Israel", writes Dr Ghada Karmi, research associate at School of Oriental and African Studies in London.
Other observers however have noted the difficulties of Israel and either of these countries coming to an agreement without serious internal repercussions. Jordan, for example, would suffer internal strife with the one million plus Palestinians who currently reside in the East Bank. Israel may also never be able to convince Israeli settlers to leave the Golan Heights.
Since the collapse of the USSR, however, increased pressure from the US is being placed on Arab countries to "make peace" and deal with Israel.
One benefit for Palestinians coming out of the peace conference is that the damage inflicted by the US and its allies smearing the PLO and the Palestinian issue during the Gulf war is being repaired. International links made through the peace process, as well Israel's intransigence on Palestinian rights during negotiations and the horror of the occupied territories under the Israeli regime all contribute to support for Palestinian independence.
Since the beginning of the intifada in December 1987 1372 Palestinians have been killed (one-third 16 years old or under), 125,651 Palestinians have been wounded, 2297 houses have been sealed or destroyed and 36,914 hectares of land have been confiscated. Currently 17,368 Palestinians are being "administratively detained" in prisons.