LONDON — It is technically and economically feasible, even using conservative assumptions, to halve current global oil use within 40 years, according to a report released on January 19 by Greenpeace.
The use of oil and other fossil fuels could easily be phased out over the next century.
The Greenpeace report, Energy Without Oil, contains the main results of an 18-month project by the Stockholm Environment Institute and world energy experts. The full report will be completed next month.
The conclusions are based on global energy models used by, among others, the United States Environmental Protection Agency and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
"The study shows that the world can do without oil, that the technical options are already available, and that such a transition would not bankrupt economies", said Greenpeace International energy policy director Stewart Boyle at a press conference in London.
"If the public want to see a halt to the continuing tragedy of oil spills like the Braer disaster in the Shetlands, and to prevent a climate catastrophe, the decision to begin to get out of oil needs to be taken now", he said.
Boyle said the main problems in implementing the results of the study were not technological or economic, but simply a lack of political will.
"Over 70% of research and development money is currently committed to fossil fuels and nuclear. A mere 12% is spent on renewable energy and energy efficiency. We need a massive shift of this money into environmentally sound and safe technologies, and political commitment to deploy them immediately."
Other policy changes recommended in the Greenpeace report included energy taxes on fossil fuels, the removal of massive oil exploration tax breaks and subsidies and efficiency standards for vehicles.
Boyle emphasised that the study used similar assumptions for economic growth and industrialisation as governments like the US, who argued against the instigation of global controls on fossil fuel use under the Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed at the Earth Summit last year. "Using their assumptions, playing their game, we have proven them wrong. A phase-out of oil and other fossil fuels is not only ecologically imperative but technically and economically feasible.
"But", Boyle stressed, "we need to start now. Every 10-year delay may commit the planet to an additional 0.4° C warming. Greenpeace International atmosphere scientist Dr Jeremy Leggett pointed out the dangers inherent in oil and other fossil fuel use.
"Oil is a highly toxic substance. We have seen the damage in the Shetlands. We have seen the damage in Prince William Sound from the Exxon Valdez, and in Spain from the Aegean Sea. Most importantly, the world's top atmospheric scientists tell us that we have to stop using fossil fuels like oil in order to avoid a climate catastrophe.
"It is ironic that the storm which caused the wreck of the Braer may have been due to climate change from the burning of oil and other fossil fuels.
"This report proves that we can stop all of this."