By Dave Riley
The recently concluded Irish peace deal has not been received enthusiastically — despite media claims to the contrary.
The Loyal Orange Lodge has rejected it out of hand, and the main loyalist party, the Ulster Unionists, is expected to endorse it reluctantly at its next gathering. "The positives outweigh the problems", conceded UUP leader David Trimble. "Despite Gerry Adams' taunts, we have risen from the table with the Union stronger than when we sat down."
Trimble seems to have a point. Even the conservative voice of nationalist capitalism, the Sunday Business Post, dubbed the deal "a rescue operation for Ulster unionism".
"Anybody who dares to speak out against this deal", stated the Post's April 12 editorial, "will be told that they are either in favour of violence, or openly courting the risk of civil war. Yet we must call a spade a spade here, as we have always done, and state that what has been negotiated must represent a massive disappointment, given current demographic trends in the six counties and given the fact that Irish nationalists are in a clear majority in 30 of the 32 counties."
This sentiment has been reflected elsewhere as the full import of the settlement begins to sink in. For the moment, however, Sinn Féin is silent. Contrary to the impression given by the media, Sinn Féin has not signed the deal and is unlikely to take a final position for a few weeks, during which it will consult its membership.
Party president Gerry Adams said the struggle for a united Ireland would continue and that this agreement was but "a phase in our struggle".
In the end, the agreement's failure to offer just terms for the nationalists, or to advance the cause of a united Ireland, may be outweighed by the simple desire for peace. And for the sake of peace, the nationalist community in the north have been asked to legitimise partition.
Ireland is supposed to "hive off" a large part of its national territory — the six counties, of which four have a nationalist majority. Britain promises to incorporate into law a commitment to legislate for a united Ireland if a majority within the six counties want to enter a united Ireland. In fact, Britain has made this promise five times in the last 50 years.
In turn, the Ahern government in the south will urge the population of the 26 counties to vote in a referendum that the six counties of the north are British, not Irish.
In this referendum, planned for May 22, separate votes will be taken in the north and south, but with limited options. In the 26 counties, the changes to the Irish constitution and support for the deal will form a single question. Voting no to the constitutional changes will, therefore, constitute a vote against the deal. In the north, people will be asked to vote only on the deal.
The limited option offered to nationalists carries over to the proposed elected assembly. This assembly of 108 members would have a chairperson, a first minister, a deputy first minister and up to 10 ministers responsible for the existing departments in the six counties.
Those elected to ministerial offices would be compelled by legislation to participate in cross-border executive structures. But by requiring nationalist/unionist designations in the forthcoming assembly, the agreement perpetuates the sectarian nature of the northern state.
Every issue of importance to nationalists, such as policing or prisons, is to be referred to a commission, rather than being dealt with by an immediate commitment to change or reform.
Even the so-called north-south bodies — keenly supported by Dublin — are to be postponed until the unionist-dominated assembly is in place.
Against this backdrop, the Protestant marching season approaches and with it the prospect of clashes on Garvaghy Road around July 12. If the marches are forced through, as they were last year, it is very likely that this new settlement, despite the compromises that created it, may be brought crashing down.