By Peter Boyle
MELBOURNE — The swing against Labor in the October 3 Victorian election was a record 6%. At the close of counting on election night, Jeff Kennett's Liberal-National Coalition had won 61 out of the 92 seats in the Legislative Assembly, and 16 out of 22 seats in the Legislative Council, with four lower house and two upper house seats still in doubt.
The swing against Labor was expected to be larger, but in the last two weeks of the campaign, Labor began to close the gap as some workers began to fear the prospects of Kennett's union bashing and wage cutting policies. In the end Labor consolidated its vote in most western and northern suburbs seats (the traditional Labor heartland) but failed to stop large numbers of workers punishing Labor in the extensive eastern outer suburbs of Melbourne.
In country electorates there was a swing against Labor and a bigger swing against the Liberals, picked up by the National Party.
All electorates were sharply polarised between Labor and Coalition parties. Independents and smaller parties scored relatively poorly, although a record 182 independents contested the election. The only independent in the old parliament, Labor defector Rod McKenzie, lost his Geelong upper house seat, and no independent or smaller party candidate came anywhere near winning.
Victoria's only daily tabloid, Murdoch's Herald-Sun, campaigned against Labor and against independents, and the Coalition produced a special television advertisement to warn that a vote for independents was a vote for Labor. Even the more liberal Age argued that a vote for independents was "a waste" and possibly even a threat to parliamentary democracy!
With about three-quarters of the vote counted, the biggest non-major-party vote was the 21.8% won by colourful, controversial and outspoken social worker Les Twentyman in the upper house seat of West Melbourne. Christine Craik, who split from the Democrats in August together with former Democrat leader Senator Janet Powell, scored 13.9% in Mill Park, and Linda Blundell (ex-ALP) scored 12.9% in Broadmeadows. Craik and Twentyman were the only two independent candidates to receive any coverage by the big business media in the campaign.
The Democrats' four candidates averaged about 5% of the vote in the seats they contested.
Jenny Saulwick, a moderate independent endorsed by Tasmanian Green Bob Brown and the peak environment bodies, won 5.6% in Monbulk.
The highest vote among candidates with a clearly left platform was the r Green Alliance candidate Francesca Davidson. Gay candidate Shane Tonks/Barbra Quicksand polled 4.9% in Albert Park, Democratic Socialist Dave Holmes received 2.3% of the vote in Melbourne, and Western Suburbs community activist Colleen Hartland won 1.5% in Footscray. The progressive candidates expect their totals to increase a bit as the final votes are counted.
Dave Holmes told Green Left Weekly that he was happy with his vote. "It was a very conscious vote for socialist policies, and quite a few people told our campaigners at the booths that they would prefer to vote for us but opted for the ALP ticket because they were frightened by Kennett's policies. But even some Labor campaigners said that they thought Labor had prepared the ground for the Coalition victory."
Right-wing candidates running as independents, the Democratic Labor Party, Citizen Initiated Referendum Alliance and the Natural Law Party all polled very poorly.
While a victorious Jeff Kennett made an appeal for cooperation from both business and the unions, he has promised to prioritise introduction of a New Zealand-style individual contracts-based industrial relations system, cuts in public sector jobs and accelerated privatisation.
State Public Service Federation vice-president Bill Deller told Green Left Weekly that he anticipated a big showdown between the new government and the union movement. But former prime minister Bob Hawke's advice to Kennett, delivered in his new $15,000-an-appearance role as Channel Nine television commentator, was to "get on the phone to [Victorian Trades Hall Council Secretary] John Halfpenny and work something out".