Statistics as lies
The Human Development Report 2000 findings of a growing rich-poor divide have proved contentious, mainly because they shatter claims that the brave new world of corporate-run "globalisation" will lead to prosperity and bounty for all.
This year, the three pillars of that "globalisation" — the World Bank, the World Trade Organisation and the International Monetary Fund — have all conducted studies attempting to prove their point.
In some, the free marketeers have sought to show that the rich-poor divide isn't growing. For instance, Fairfax's in-house neo-liberal economist Ross Gittins, in a July 5 Sydney Morning Herald attempt to refute the HDR 2000, quotes one set of World Bank data showing that the ratio of the incomes of the 20% of the world's population living in the richest countries to those of the 20% in the poorest was 13:1 in 1960, 18:1 in 1991 but fell to 16:1 in 1997.
Others have sought to argue that, even if the rich-poor gap is growing, it isn't because of their policies. A June report from the WTO, for instance, sought to "prove" director-general Mike Moore's assertion that "free" trade "is essential if poor people are to have any hope of a brighter future".
The statistics these claims are based on are more often than not rubbery. Gittins' statistic is true, but is severely skewed by the fact it includes rapidly industrialising China, with its 1.2 billion people. The WTO report relies on analysis of "free" trade between Canada and the US and in post-war Europe, countries with little relevant experience for sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia.
But other studies have backed up the HDR 2000 findings. A 1999 study of worldwide income distribution by Branko Milanovic, for example, studied household survey data from 91 countries. It found a sharp rise in inequality between 1988 and 1993.
Buried in the statistical tables, the HDR 2000 reproduces the World Bank's own data, which shows that the average per capita GDP of an OECD country was 16 times greater than that of the average LDC in 1985, and 19 times greater in 1998.