BY CHRISTIANO KERRILA
When Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez was elected in 1998, the country's capitalist class viewed him as an irritating populist. After his government introduced a democratic constitution and a set of progressive laws, which awakened the class consciousness of Venezuela's poor and oppressed, the elite concluded that Chavez was not merely an irritation but had to be overthrown.
In April 2002, sections of Venezuela's military brass and key figures in the capitalist opposition, in cahoots with the governments of the United States and Spain, organised a military coup and ousted Chavez. However, a huge popular uprising restored Chavez to power less than 48 hours later.
In December, the ruling class, its collaborators in Venezuela's trade union movement and the management of the state-owned oil company staged an economic shutdown to demand that Chavez resign. However, the bosses' strike collapsed in the face of the continued mobilisation of Venezuela's working class, and urban and rural poor.
Another opposition strategy has been to campaign for the holding of a referendum on whether Chavez should be recalled from office. Venezuela's constitution states that, once a president has served half their term, such a referendum can be held if 20% of voters demand one.
On August 23, the Venezuelan government organised a massive demonstration in Caracas in support of Chavez's "Bolivarian revolution". Up to 1 million people participated in the massive show of strength, which gave confidence to the revolutionary movement and shocked the opposition and the pro-elite media and courts.
Soon after, the Supreme Court appointed a new five-member National Electoral College (CNE). Two of its members were from the opposition, while two were favourable to the government. The fifth member was considered an independent. Both the Venezuelan government and the opposition party, the Democratic Coordinator, described the CNE's composition as fair.
On September 12, the CNE ruled that the petition calling for a referendum — which the opposition claimed contained 3 million signatures — was invalid. The CNE supported the government's view that the signatures were inadmissible because they had been collected prior to the mid-point of Chavez's term in office.
The government had also charged that many of the signatures were not legitimate. Dead people, who had not yet been removed from the electoral roll, had returned from the grave to sign the petition. The government also claimed that the databases of Venezuela's banks were used as a source of citizens' details to be put on the petition.
The CNE's ruling was a blow to the right-wing opposition, as it was hoping for a recall referendum as soon as possible, while the effects of its economic sabotage are still being felt and before the Chavez government's sweeping social programs and land reform further boosts the revolutionary government's support.
The Chavez government is taking the initiative. The government is increasing the number of Cuban doctors working in Venezuela's slums, and has diverted around US$300 million from other programs into social spending, particularly health and education programs. The land reform program will have given land to hundreds of thousands of people by the time a referendum is held. "Plan Robinson" is helping to wipe out illiteracy and workers' cooperatives are beginning to form in many places around the country.
The opposition has announced that it will begin a new signature campaign on October 5, meaning the earliest a referendum can be held is January-March. However, in a move fiercely denounced by the opposition, the CNE will directly supervise the collection of new signatures.
Even if Chavez loses the referendum, if it is ever held, the opposition will have great trouble defeating him in an election. This is not only because Chavez has a lot of support, but also because the political leadership of the opposition is discredited and divided. At the same time, many opposition-aligned mayors and provincial governors are to be put to the electoral test next year and many are likely to lose to pro-Chavez candidates (many were elected by pretending to be Chavez allies, but then defected to the opposition).
In this situation, some sections of the heavily fragmented opposition are likely to conclude that the only road left to them to defeat the Bolivarian revolution is to violently overthrow Chavez, either by assassination, military coup or civil war.
Earlier this year, the Colombian, Spanish and Algerian embassies were bombed. Later, the headquarters of the "Group of Friends of Venezuela" were bombed. State oil company facilities have been sabotaged and are now guarded by the military. Around 80 peasant and rural workers' leaders have been assassinated in the last two years.
On September 11, Venezuela's vice-president Jose Vicente Rangel condemned the 9/11 acts of terrorism committed in New York and Washington, as well as the US-backed military coup in Chile on September 11, 1973. Rangel said the coups in Chile and Venezuela in 2002 were almost identical, involving the same social actors including the US government.
Venezuela has also come under attack from the US-aligned, right-wing regime in Colombia. On September 4, following a battle between fighters of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia and Colombian government-backed death squads, 300 refugees escaped into Venezuela. When Venezuelan soldiers attempted to assist them, they were attacked by the Colombian paramilitaries. Three paramilitaries were killed and one Venezuelan soldier was wounded in a vicious fire fight. The clash took place on Venezuela's side of the border.
Venezuela's state news agency reported on September 12 that 15 Black Hawk helicopters, donated to Colombia by the US military, had violated Venezuelan airspace on September 9. The choppers flew inside Venezuela's territory for 20 minutes. The Venezuelan government lodged an official protest to both the US and Colombian governments.
According to September 18 Venezuelanalysis (<http://www.Venezuelanalysis.com>), Chavez told foreign journalists that he had proof that the CIA is training right-wing Venezuelans.
Chavez was due to fly to the US to make speeches at the United Nations and in Harlem, and to attend the opening of oil facilities in the US owned by the Venezuelan government. However, his trip was suddenly cancelled due to "security concerns". VHeadline reported on September 21 that Venezuela's Military Intelligence Directorate (DIM) feared there was a CIA plan to destroy Chavez's presidential jet while it was in the air.
The Venezuelan government has also accused ex-president Carlos Andres Perez, now living in the Dominican Republic, of coordinating a conspiracy to overthrow Chavez. Perez has openly called for another military coup as the "solution" to the Bolivarian revolution. Caracas has asked the government of the Dominican Republic to extradite Perez to Venezuela to serve a jail sentence for corruption. The Dominican Republic has refused to cooperate and Venezuela has suspended oil shipments until the situation is clarified.
From Green Left Weekly, October 1, 2003.
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