By Norm Dixon
Kisangani, east Zaire's most important city and the Mobutu dictatorship's last stronghold in the country's east, fell to the rebels of the Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo-Zaire (ADFL), led by Laurent Kabila, on March 15. The rapid successes of the rebels and the mounting popular support they command throughout Zaire has set alarm bells ringing in western capitals and the United Nations.
Washington and Paris fear that the fall of Kisangani may spark a popular uprising in Kinshasa which will sweep away not only Mobutu but his entire pro-western regime, and bring to power a government backed by a mobilised and politically confident population. Each has proposed ways to bring the rebels' offensive to a halt.
After a brief lull, the ADFL resumed its spectacular advance west by seizing the strategic town of Kindu on February 27. Kindu, 450 kilometres south of Kisangani, was the site of a major army garrison and an airport. Its capture gave the rebels direct river access to Kisangani.
Thousands of Zaire army troops melted away in the face of the guerilla advance, hundreds deserted to the rebels, and the civilian population cheered the fighters as they marched into town.
On March 2, the ADFL captured the heavily militarised Tingi-Tingi refugee camp, 210 km south-east of Kisangani, where soldiers of the genocidal former regime of Rwanda held 170,000 Rwandan refugees as human shields. By March 5, rebels were within 30 km of Kisangani. Reporters witnessed unarmed rebels entering the city unhindered to urge government troops to not resist the city's liberation.
The fall of Kisangani is a decisive defeat for the dictatorship in the east. On the Zaire River, it gives the rebels direct water access to Kinshasa. There is also a major rail line linking the east with the west. The city is serviced by two airports, one of which is the headquarters of the army in the east and of several hundred, mainly Serbian, mercenaries.
The region's governor attempted to flee twice but was ordered to remain so as to maintain the fiction that the government controlled the city. The two most senior officers of the former Rwandan army, whose troops offered the only real opposition to the rebels, abandoned Kisangani for Kinshasa.
On February 5, the US publicly warned Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi not to support the rebels. The statement represented a shift towards the line being pushed by France and Mobutu that the rebellion is an external "aggression". On February 22, the US and France agreed that the rebel advance needed to be halted when the UN Security Council unanimously endorsed a "peace" plan centred on the ADFL agreeing to an immediate cease-fire.
Washington prefers a negotiated end to the rebellion so the dictator can be eased from power through an election which would favour the moderate pro-US opposition in Kinshasa.
A week of talks in late February, convened by South African President Nelson Mandela in Pretoria, between rebel leader Kabila and unofficial representatives of the Mobutu regime — also attended by US assistant secretary of state for African affairs George Moose and US National Security Council official Susan Rice — collapsed after Mobutu disowned his representatives and rejected negotiations.
The US officials pressed the rebels nonetheless unilaterally to halt their advance. The rebels refused, insisting they would agree to a cease-fire only when Mobutu was prepared to negotiate his resignation and a return to democratic rule.
France and Belgium, which remain committed to propping up Mobutu, want a more aggressive approach than the US is prepared to support. They again revived the call for a "humanitarian" military intervention force.
French and Belgian ministers claimed the rebels are involved in massacres and genocide. They have been unable to present any evidence other than claims by anonymous "eyewitnesses" and Zairean government reports which talk of 50,000 deaths and the "discovery" of mass graves. It remains a mystery who "discovered" the graves since Zairean troops have on every occasion fled before rebel advances.
Belgium's development minister withdrew his charges of genocide, saying he had been "misled".
After talks in Paris in early March with French foreign minister Herve de Charette, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan backed the French call for military intervention.
The ADFL dismissed the UN secretary-general's claim that intervention is needed to help 200,000 Rwandan refugees to return home as a smokescreen for a rescue of Mobutu. The rebels have guaranteed safe passage for Rwandan refugees travelling home through rebel-held territory and allow aid organisations access to refugees.
Those who cannot return home are being held hostage by supporters of the genocidal former regime of Rwanda who are fighting on the side of Mobutu, the ADFL adds.
French and Belgian government claims of genocide behind rebel lines are contradicted by every reporter on the ground in rebel territory. AP's Karin Davies on March 5 reported that all along the road to Kisangani from Tingi-Tingi, rebel fighters were cheered by Zaireans.
As the rebels passed through the village of Eriba, Reverend Andre Fataki said: "If these were government soldiers, we'd all be hiding in fear. With the Alliance, we have peace, no more harassment, no more stealing, and justice has been restored."
The repeated claim that the rebels are "Tutsis" is also wearing thin as the rebellion sweeps west and involves Zaireans from many ethnic backgrounds, all united in their hatred of Mobutu.
The growing mood in favour of Kabila in Kinshasa is also unaffected by government and French disinformation. On March 7, soldiers broke up a demonstration by the opposition Union for Democracy and Social Progress. Jean Claude Mabale told the rally before its disruption: "Kabila, you have taken Tingi-Tingi. You are taking Kisangani. We are waiting for you in Kinshasa."
Juliet Muamba, unemployed, told the Washington Post Kabila "will not have to fight for Kinshasa. We will welcome him here." The name Kabila is met with choruses of "Liberator!" when it is mentioned beneath the trees where Kinshasa's unemployed meet during the day, reports the British Guardian's Chris McGreal. The name Mobutu is met with a deafening "Traitor!".
There is growing disenchantment with the moderate opposition leader, Etienne Tshisekedi, whom Washington favours to replace Mobutu.
The US State Department on March 11 authorised US embassy employees to leave Kinshasa.