BY DICK NICHOLS
Since it called off its truce in late 1999, the Basque armed independence organisation ETA (Basque Homeland and Freedom) has carried out a spate of bombings and assassinations across Spain. These have aroused such disgust among ordinary people that the conservative Popular Party government of Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar viewed the May 13 elections for the Basque Autonomous Region as a "now or never" chance to deliver a crippling blow to the Basque national movement as a whole.
The Aznar government undoubtedly hoped it could use the popular revulsion at ETA's bombing campaign to overturn the present Basque regional government. This has been dominated by the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), which has ruled the Basque Country (Euskadi) in various coalitions since the adoption of the present Spanish constitution after the fall of the Franco dictatorship two decades ago.
Aznar had good reasons for optimism. ETA's counter-productive campaign of bombings, "hits" on political opponents and street violence had "harvested" not only police officers and councillors of other parties. The victims also included an ex-minister of the social-democratic Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) noted for his openness to the claims of Basque national movement and workers who happened to be in the wrong place when the group's bombs exploded. Millions of people across Spain have demonstrated their solidarity with the victims.
In fact, it was hard to imagine a better political boost for Aznar's reactionary Spanish centralism than the ETA campaign. It helped the PP criminalise all expressions of the Basque national movement, facilitated Madrid's judicial repression of Basque organisations like the youth group Haika, made it very difficult to discuss Basque claims rationally elsewhere in Spain and forced nearly every political current to the right. So confident was the PP of being able to pull off a big win that Spanish interior minister Jaime Mayor Oreja resigned to contest the post of Basque premier (lehendakari).
But all to no avail. Popular rejection of ETA did not show up in a huge surge of votes to the PP and the Socialist Party of Euskadi (PSE), the PSOE's Basque affiliate. Despite a vast campaign in their favour by the media, judiciary and the "intelligentsia" and despite the support of the Spanish crown and even the main national trade union confederations, the PP only managed to gain one seat. The PCE fared even worse, losing a seat.
The big winner was the PNV, allied with a former split from its ranks, Eusko Askatasuna (EA). Mainstream Basque nationalism is now on the brink of being able to govern without the support of Euskal Herritarok (EH), ETA's "civilian wing", which consistently refused to condemn ETA violence. EH lost 80,000 votes, primarily to the PNV, which also picked up another 60-70,000 because of the big increase in voter participation.
The result confirmed that Basque national feeling is very deeply rooted and that the PP and PSE campaign of equating it with terrorism got the rejection it deserved. The vote also reflected the Basque people's attachment to gains won over the last 20 years (in cultural autonomy, use of the Basque tongue and other issues). Overall the nationalist camp scored 743,000 votes to the PP-PSE's 575,000.
This balance does not include the vote for Esker Batua (EB), the Basque affiliate of the all-Spanish United Left (Izquierda Unida — IU), which gained a seat from EH in the latter's stronghold, the region of Guipuzcoa. Although the overall percentage vote for EB declined marginally, this was a significant result. It showed that EB's recipe of fighting for a genuine act of self-determination combined with the proposal for a new federalism within the Spanish state could still win a hearing in Basque society, despite deep polarisation and media blackouts.
The new balance of forces is already making itself felt in local and all-Spanish politics. Within the PSOE there is a rising wave of criticism of the PSE's policy of trying to outdo the PP in anti-ETA hysteria-mongering and for its pre-election "Pact for Freedoms and Against Terrorism" with Aznar's party. Not only are the (insignificant) left currents up in arms, but vote-conscious PSOE regional barons have also declared the pact politically dead.
For his part, PSOE leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has declared a "new" openness to dialogue with the Basque nationalist parties, while at the same time imposing exactly the same conditions as already contained in the "Pact for Freedoms".
Aznar's reaction to the PP defeat has been simply to insist on the PNV's breaking all agreements with EH, but this stubborn reaffirmation of the existing line could well start losing the PP support in other regions of Spain. Moreover, if the PNV does break with EH because it refuses to condemn ETA violence, it will expose the PP's real stance and force it to hunt for new masks for its Spanish centralism. Aznar's position was summed up well in a cartoon showing the PP as a group of seven cowboys shouting "surrender" to a circling force of thousands of Indians.
At the head of the PNV, lehendakari Juan Jose Ibarretxe has insisted that EH must condemn the violence of ETA if it is to be included in any discussions on a peace. This demand is also aimed at deepening the crisis within EH and the Basque nationalist left in general and further marginalising the social base of support for ETA's militarism. The PNV is stressing that such a declaration from EH is a precondition for any "Irish solution" to the Basque conflict.
The poll result is imposing huge strains on the constellation of organisations associated with ETA. Within EH the halving of its parliamentary representation has already led to calls for the existing leadership to stand down from the critical EH current Aralar. Arnaldo Otegi, the EH spokesperson, while conceding that the armed struggle has had a negative effect, has laid the main blame on the wave of "neo-Francoism" coming from Madrid. Otegi has also called on the PNV to recognise that it now has the base of support to move further along the road to Basque autonomy and independence.
In a further sign that tensions in the nationalist camp are running high, Rafa Diez, the secretary general of the nationalist left union confederation LAB, has called on EH and the nationalist left to rethink its line from top to bottom.
Javier Madrazo, the spokesperson for EB-IU, has called on the PSOE to step out of opposition and into a governing coalition with EB-IU and the PNV. However, the PSE has decided to remain in opposition, where it now will play second fiddle to the PP.
Madrazo has also floated the possibility of EB-IU entering a coalition with the PNV by itself, but this would meet with considerable opposition from within EB ranks, who can see that the PNV, while under constant fire from Madrid, implements aspects of neoliberal austerity within the Basque country itself.
In its declaration after the poll Alternative Space, the main left current within IU stated: "the recovery of EB-IU undoubtedly gives a push to the construction of a Basque left that defends the right of self-determination and an open federalist project". It looked forward to EB-IU's work in parliament being based on a close alliance with the social movements who link defence of the Basque national identity with the struggle against neo-liberalism and for basic social rights.
The May 13 poll result in the Basque country makes it clearer than ever that Basque national self-determination cannot be achieved through Basque country politics alone. ETA's "armed struggle" enjoys a shrinking base of support, while the PNV, close to some of the most powerful sectors of Spanish capitalism, is both a hesitant exponent of Basque national rights and incapable of winning the mass of working people in other regions of Spain to supporting the Basque people's right to self-determination.
In this context, a critical question is whether Izquierda Unida, which at an all-Spanish level is ambiguous on the right of the oppressed Basque nation to self-determination, will rethink its stance in the light of election results which show that the combined struggle for national and social rights is the only way forward, in Euskadi and Spain as a whole.
[Dick Nichols, is a member of the Democratic Socialist Party, and spent February and March this year in Spain.]