BY STUART MUNCKTON
Right-wing opponents of elected Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez have gone on a new offensive aimed at destabilising the country and bringing Chavez down. In recent weeks there has been a general strike supported by national and foreign companies and an assassination attempt on Chavez, as well as a continuing military rebellion.
So far, however, the opposition, which consists primarily of the right-wing leadership of the Venezuelan Workers Confederation (CVT), the main business federation Fedecamaras and the two discredited political parties that ruled Venezuela for decades, has failed in its bid to be rid of Chavez, whose progressive reforms have won him the loyalty of Venezuela's poor.
Chavez's opponents are undeterred, however. On November 4, they presented the government with a petition of 2 million signatures calling for a December referendum on the presidency, threatening to call an indefinite general strike if Chavez refuses.
Chavez has declared he is not afraid of a referendum, which polls indicate he would win, but has refused to call one in December, arguing the opposition must wait until August next year. The democratic constitution, introduced by Chavez and adopted by popular referendum, allows for a referendum on the presidency halfway through the electoral term, which is August 17, 2003.
Following the mass demonstration by opponents of Chavez on October 10, the opposition called a general strike for October 21. The strike was supported by both Fedecamaras and the CVT, as well as multinational companies organised into the Venezuelan-American Chamber of Commerce. In the lead up to the strike, workers from the oil, gas, petrochemical and steel sectors announced that they would not take part.
The opposition says that 80% of the workforce took part in the strike, shutting down the country. Vice-President Jose Vicente Rangel, however, told Reuters newswire: "The country did not stop. It's on its feet and running." He estimated support for the strike at no more than 10%.
Reports indicate that while the strike emptied the streets and shut down the majority of businesses in the wealthier parts of the capital Caracas, there was very little disruption in the poorer sections.
On October 19, in the lead up to the strike, Chavez announced that an attempt on his life had been foiled. He said that security forces had uncovered a plot to shoot the presidential plane down with a bazooka as it flew into Caracas from Chavez's European trip. Warned, the plane changed course. Security forces said they seized weapons, including a bazooka, from a group near the intended landing site.
The day after the general strike, 14 military officers, nine of them under investigation for their role in the failed April coup, seized a plaza in eastern Caracas and declared it a "liberated zone". The officers called on the armed forces to rise up and overthrow Chavez, citing a section of the constitution that allows the military to remove a government that has abused human rights.
The call for a new rebellion fell flat when the armed forces ignored the call and soldiers stayed in their barracks. The officers' protest has continued, however, and key sections of the opposition, initially wary of being seen to support a new coup, have backed their rebellion. There are now 120 rebel officers, all in uniform. Some reports indicate that thousands of anti-Chavez protesters are joining them.
The officers, referred to by the London Financial Times as "rebels with room service", have established a permanent base in the less-than-harsh surrounds of the Four Seasons Hotel. A leader of the rebel officers, General Medina, said, "We will not surrender the plaza until Chavez resigns and calls elections".
Chavez has denounced the rebel officers, the overwhelming majority of whom were implicated in the April coup and have been without any position in the armed forces since. The Chavistas have mounted their own protests in defence of the elected government and against the coup makers. Chavez's supporters also plan to initiate referendums of their own, aimed at removing anti-Chavez mayors.
While the opposition has not succeeded in its aim of bringing Chavez down, it has established a sizeable base of support. To collect two million signatures on a petition is no mean feat and while the October 13 pro-Chavez protest was larger than the October 10 anti-Chavez protest, both were among the largest demonstrations in Venezuela's history.
Sociologist Gregory Wilpert, currently writing a book on the experience of the Chavez government, has posted an article on ZNet <http://www.zmag.org> that aimed at explaining why the middle class have turned against Chavez. Wilpert points out that the reforms Chavez has implemented have benefitted the poor, but have had little direct impact on the middle class.
For example, Chavez has established free universal health care for the first time, but the middle class tends to use private health care. Chavez has built new schools and made education free up until tertiary level, including the provision of three free meals a day. This is a major advance for the poor and has seen millions of students enrolled for the first time, but the middle class tends to rely on private education. The middle class has benefited little from land reform, the building of homes and roads and provision of micro-credit for the poor.
But under Chavez, the upper middle-class has been made to pay tax for the first time. The government is now collecting income tax, but only the wealthiest 20% of the populationare made to pay.
Wilpert also claims that the economic crisis has had a disproportionate effect on the middle class. Inflation is now running at almost 30%, which affects salaried workers, who only get one pay rise a year, hard. The urban poor in the informal economy are simply charging more for their goods or services. The devaluing of the currency by 50% affects the ability of the middle class to purchase imported consumer goods, something the poor could not afford to do in the first place.
Wilpert also argues that racism and elitism have led many to desert Chavez for the opposition. This is fuelled by the virulently anti-Chavez private media, which publishes constant attacks on the government and unverified claims of corruption and incompetence.
Wilpert claims the this is a form of psychological warfare: the message that Venezuelan society is on the verge of collapse and that Chavez is an unpopular dictator is constantly reiterated. This convinces many in the middle class, hit by the economic problems and without direct benefits from Chavez's "Bolivarian revolution", that Venezuela truly is under a dictatorship.
What is the balance of forces? Much of the opposition appears to believe its own propaganda: that Chavez is unpopular and about to fall. Chavez retains strong support, however, from the urban and rural poor. They are increasingly organised, not just to defend the government but to create new forms of direct and participatory democracy. The question of who gets to control Venezuelan society is yet to be decided.
From Green Left Weekly, November 20, 2002.
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