Barry Weisleder, Toronto
Despite a very modest recovery in the latest opinion polls, the scandal-rocked Liberal Party remains in a quandary over whether to call the Canadian federal election in Spring, or Autumn, or even later. For now, damage control remains the priority for Prime Minister Paul Martin.
It is a daunting task. Martin was the federal finance minister when the government operated a program that spent US$250 million to sponsor nearly 2000 events between 1997 and 2003. More than $100 million of that went in commissions to Liberal-friendly firms, often with little to show for the cash, according to auditor-general Sheila Fraser. Martin claims to have been in the dark about the program.
Since the scandal broke on February 10, Martin has been touring the country, expressing his "indignation" at the evident patronage payouts, and his "earnest" intention "to get to the bottom of this", and punish the guilty.
In an effort to stem his party's drop in the polls, Martin fired Alfonso Gagliano, Canada's ambassador to Denmark and former federal cabinet minister who was in charge of the sponsorship program. Martin also fired or suspended some heads of government corporations implicated in the scandal, and appointed Justice John Gomery to preside over a public inquiry into the affair.
Back on December 3, the Liberals were riding high at 56% support in public opinion, gearing up for an April or May election, and expecting a landslide victory. Then in the wake of Fraser's report they suddenly plummeted to 35%.
A partial recovery is shown in the late February 2004 survey by EKOS Research Associates, which gives the Liberals 42% of the decided vote. The new Conservative Party, a fusion of the hard right-wing Alliance (Reform) Party and the old Progressive Conservative Party, has risen to 32%. The labour-based New Democratic Party (NDP) has climbed to 15% (up from 12% in December, and 9% in the 2000 election).
In Quebec, which has 75 of the 301 seats in the House of Commons, the nationalist Bloc Quebecois has recovered from near collapse to now lead the Liberals — 40% to 38%. This is partly a reaction to the idea propagated by reactionary politicians and the English media that patronage is more rife in Quebec. The notion would further victimize the victims of national oppression, the vast majority of whom have no access to Liberal slush funds, much less the levers of federal state power.
More heads may roll as the search for scapegoats continues. But it will be difficult for Martin to disown his record as the finance minister who made the biggest cuts in Canadian history in transfer payments to the provinces and to vital social programmes. That's the major crime against working people for which Martin and the Liberals should pay.
Official scandals reveal divisions in the ruling elite; they rarely go to the heart of injustices inherent in the capitalist system. And scandal in Canadian bourgeois politics is certainly nothing new. But the magnitude of this one could dislodge the Liberals, sometimes referred to as the "perpetual party of power", or at least produce a minority government in Ottawa — which hasn't been seen for nearly 30 years.
So far, the new Conservative Party appears to be benefiting most from voter disgust with the scandal-tainted Liberals. That could change, however, if Stephen Harper, former head of the Alliance Party and the most right wing of the three candidates for leadership, wins the Conservative Party crown.
The latest opinion polls show that over 40% of the electorate is determined to punish the Liberals by voting for another party. A majority believes that there will be a minority government, and supports such an outcome. The same polls show the NDP is now the most popular party of "second choice".
The question remains whether NDP leaders will try to fill the now enormous space on the left and offer real socialist solutions, or seek the barren neoliberal middle ground.
From Green Left Weekly, March 10, 2004.
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