Kim Bullimore, West Bank
According to the US-Israeli script, the death of Palestinian President Yasser Arafat on November 11 was suppose to spark a violent power struggle within the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) and in its leading faction, Fatah, as well as between the guerrilla fighters of the Al Asqa Brigades, Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
However, much to the surprise of the Israeli and international media, this has not happened. Instead, the US and Israeli rulers' worst nightmare is coming true — a unified Palestinian leadership.
Palestinians of all political stripes are currently working collectively, albeit loosely and cautiously, toward the presidential election scheduled for January 9.
This does not mean that there is no political manoeuvring and bargaining going on. However, except for the attempted assassination of newly appointed PLO chairperson Mahmoud Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen) in Gaza on November 14, which was played down by Abbas and the paramilitary organisations, there have been no acts of political violence between the 13 PLO factions.
On November 23, the Fatah leadership announced that it would stand the 69-year-old Abbas as its candidate for the Palestinian Authority presidency. In 2003, Abbas, as PA prime minister, attracted widespread criticism from Palestinians when he called for an end to the intifada and equated the armed struggle for independence with terrorism. With the announcement of his candidature, Abbas promised "to follow in the footsteps of Yasser Arafat" and called for a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.
Abbas also called for Israel to recognised the right of return for Palestinian refugees, saying "we will not rest until we achieve the right of return for our people and end the tragic refugee issue".
On November 25, an associate of Marwan Barghouti announced Barghouti would stand as an independent candidate for the PA presidency. Barghouti, a 45-year-old senior Fateh figure serving five life sentences in an Israeli prison for his role in the intifada, has consistently been named in opinion polls as the most popular leader after Arafat. His popularity stems not only from his prominent role in the intifada, but from his outspoken criticisms of corruption within the PA, and civil liberties abuses committed by it. However, on November 27, Barghouti said he would not stand.
In the weeks since Arafat's death, Hamas and Islamic Jihad have said they will not contest the presidential election but have begun calling for village, municipal and Legislative Council elections to also be held on January 9. Previously, Hamas and Islamic Jihad had boycotted the 1996 elections, refusing to recognise the validity of the 1993 Oslo accords between Israel and the PLO that led to the setting up of the PA.
By refusing to stand candidates in the presidential election, while calling for local government and parliamentary elections, Hamas and Islamic Jihad can still retain an in-principle rejection of the Olso accords but also attempt to challenge Fatah's domination of Palestinian electoral politics at the local and legislative level.
According to a survey of Palestinian public opinion conducted by Bir Zeit University in September, 32% of Palestinians polled would vote for the Islamic Bloc (Hamas and Islamic Jihad), while 34% would vote for Fatah and another 4% would vote for a "leftist" bloc.
Ghassan Andoni, one of the Palestinian founders of the International Solidarity Movement, argued in a November 17 article on the International Middle East Media Center's website that "Hamas's call for a unified leadership reflects the Islamic Movement's desire to create a parallel body to the PLO, thereby decreasing PLO political influence in Palestinian political life".
With the death of Arafat and the collaboration and negotiations between the Palestinian factions, Sharon is now faced with a dilemma. The possibility of a unified Palestinian leadership will undermine his claim that there is no "partner for peace". Successive Israeli governments had portrayed Arafat as the main obstacle to peace and used this ploy to justify Israel's continued military occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Sharon, in particular, has been a master at this game.
Arafat's death has removed Israel's excuse for not negotiating with the PLO and PA. In doing so, it it also threats to undermine Sharon's Gaza "disengagement plan". This plan, far providing a real bridge to peace, is aimed at enabling Israel to avoid reaching a final negotiated settlement with the Palestinians, as Sharon's senior advisor, Dov Weisglass, revealed in his candid interview the Israeli Haaretz daily on October 8.
According to Weisglass, the disengagement plan will allow Israel to "remove from our agenda indefinitely" any discussion about the establishment of an independent Palestinians state, any discussion about the status of the Palestinian refugees and Jerusalem, all with the approval of US government and both houses of the US Congress.
In the weeks since Arafat's death, Sharon, under pressure from the European Union and the US, has been saying that Israel won't hinder the Palestinian presidential election. His government will do little to aid the democratisation of Palestinian society however, as this would mean aiding in the creation of a Palestinian state. Instead, Sharon has already begun to lay the groundwork for undermining the next PA president by making untenable demands on the Palestinian leadership.
On November 19, Sharon demanded that the new Palestinian leadership put an "immediate" end to anti-Israel propaganda in media outlets and in the education system, including changing some textbooks now used in Palestinian schools. According to Sharon, Israel would not even begin negotiations and implementation of the first phase of the "Road Map", unless these demands were met.
As Uri Avnery, a former Knesset member and founder of the Israeli peace group Gush Shalom, subsequently pointed out, Sharon may as well request that Abbas or any Palestinian leader "pluck the moon from the heavens". In his November 20 weekly website article, Avnery asked: "How could a new democratic chairman abolish freedom of speech on TV and in the press?"
On November 23, Sharon also dismissed a proposal made that same day by visiting Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov that Israel dismantle illegal West Bank military outposts and settlements and release Palestinian political prisoners as a goodwill gesture. According to Sharon, "there are no place for new initiatives", as such gestures will only be made "when there is a stable [Palestinian] government and when there is someone who is willing to take steps in fighting against terror and [the implementation of] reforms".
In addition, Sharon's assurances to US Secretary of State Colin Powell that Israel will assist with the Palestinian election process mean little, as the Israeli occupation forces continue to carry out "targeted assassinations" of Palestinian leaders and extensive military operations in the Occupied Palestinian Territories.
Israel's usual tactic of saying one thing for international media consumption but doing another on the ground, can also be seen in its attempt to obstruct Palestinians living in East Jerusalem — recognised under the Oslo accords as part of the Occupied Palestinian Territories — from being able to register and vote in the January 9 election.
Shortly before Arafat's death, Israeli police raided numerous voter registration booths in East Jerusalem not only confiscating people's identification cards but also interrogating registration staff. At the same time, Israel also prevented voter registration elsewhere in the Occupied Territories by making it more difficult for voters to reach registration booths, intimidating registration booth staff and closing down government institutes and registration booths.
Despite Israel's rhetoric, as the Palestinian people prepare to vote in a new president, they will receive no help from the Sharon government. As Israeli academic Tanya Reinhart, writing on the Ramallah Online website on November 21, points out, "deception and lies have been a cornerstone in Israeli policy, brought to a new level of perfection since Oslo". Instead, Sharon and his ministers will continue to impose impossible preconditions on both the caretaker and prospective Palestinian president.
[Kim Bullimore is a member of the Socialist Alliance. She is currently working in the Occupied Palestinian Territories with the international human rights organisation, the International Women's Peace Service.]
From Green Left Weekly, December 1, 2004.
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