The conservative Liberal National Party (LNP) won the October 26 Queensland election with a clear majority of the 93-seat chamber. They will be bolstered by three conservative Katter Australia Party (KAP) MPs.
While the LNP had been predicted to win it was not on the scale of Labor’s decimation in 2012, as some had feared. It even seemed on election night that Labor had done better than expected and would end up being able to retain minority government.
Labor will likely win 35 seats with a 7% statewide swing against it. There was a 6% swing towards the LNP and the Greens’ retained its share of the vote, with a marginal increase.
Labor’s promises to make 50c public transport fares permanent, increase mining royalties and bring in free primary school lunches were popular, especially in a cost-of-living crisis. Some Greens voters may have been persuaded to vote for it, given the prediction of a LNP landslide.
Abortion rights became an issue during the campaign when KAP’s Robbie Katter promised to introduce a bill to repeal or wind back the 2018 law decriminalising abortion.
LNP leader David Crisafulli’s refusal — 132 times — to promise to retain legal abortion would have helped swing votes back to Labor.
Crisafulli’s refusal to give a clear answer on abortion reflected the LNP’s “small target” election campaign which focussed on a series of “tough on crime” talking points. The LNP promised very little, relying on people’s dissatisfaction with Labor to get it over the line.
The Greens projected to double its representation from two MPs, but both faced swings. At the time of writing Amy MacMahon still has a chance to win in South Brisbane, although Labor is ahead. Michael Berkman in Maiwar was returned, despite a 7% swing.
Labor MPs, including the Prime Minister, and right-wing commentators such as Sky News, argued the Greens suffered a negative swing because they are “too radical”. ABC described the results as “a shocker”.
Albanese claimed that they show “that people who elected the Greens to parliament expected them to play a progressive role, not a blocking role”.
Former Brisbane City Councillor and Greens activist Jonathan Sriranganathan wrote that, statewide, the Greens had not suffered from a negative swing and dismissed the idea that the party is “too radical”.
“It’s funny how whenever the Greens win seats, the default media establishment explanation is that we’ve successfully ‘mainstreamed’ our party and ‘grown beyond our activist roots’ but when we don’t win seats, it’s supposedly because we’re ‘too extreme’,” he said on October 29.
In some places, such as Kuraby booth in Stretton, the Greens vote rose from 9.7% in 2020 to a 41%. He said it bodes well for Remah Naji’s campaign for the federal seat of Moreton.
Sriranganathan said that as the Greens start to win support from former Labor and LNP voters, they are seen as a threat and therefore face more direct attacks from the major parties.
He said Labor’s adoption of some Greens polices would also have helped Labor win some votes back from the Greens.
“When presented with a choice between two seemingly similar parties, progressive voters who were worried about the rise of the LNP and concerned about regression on issues like abortion leaned towards the party that they felt was more powerful (i.e. Labor),” Sriranganathan said.
A Greens victory in South Brisbane will depend on postal votes and preferences that could push the LNP into second place. This would mean Labor’s preferences would help return MacMahon. Otherwise, Labor will be elected on LNP preferences.