By Tom Flanagan
HOBART — Labor Premier Michael Field's decision to call a snap election was the only way to avoid certain defeat on the floor of parliament.
The five Green Independents had vowed to move a motion of no confidence in the minority government when parliament resumed in March. The motion, in response to Labor's cynical betrayal of its promise not to reintroduce resource security legislation, would have won the opportunistic support of the Liberal Party.
By going to the polls on February 1, Labor hopes to exploit the low public profile of new Liberal leader Ray Groom, who deposed Robin Gray in December.
Another hung parliament is the most likely outcome (the current parliament consists of 17 Liberals, five Greens and 13 Labor MPs). Tasmania's Hare-Clark electoral system of proportional representation, with five seven-member electorates, leaves the way open for even more independent members to enter parliament, especially in view of massive voter disillusionment.
For the first time, the Green Independents (now a registered political party) will field a full team of seven candidates in each electorate. The Australian Democrats have decided not to stand, instead advocating support for the Greens.
Another of group of independents, running under the "Advance Tasmania" banner and led by Legislative Councillor Frank Petrusma, will stand candidates in all electorates. This team, standing on the issues of "stability" and economic development, will probably win most of its votes from disaffected Liberals, although it may also get support from the more conservative layers of former Labor and Green voters.
In an effort to defuse the "stability" issue, Green Independents leader Dr Bob Brown has promised that in the event of another hung parliament — and in the absence of another agreement being achieved between the Greens and either of the major parties — the Greens will allow the party that wins the most seats to form a minority government. In practice this means that the Greens would promise not to block supply and to restrict no confidence motions to extraordinary circumstances.
A candidate who may draw significant support on a social justice platform is former miner and union leader Ian Jamieson, standing as an independent in the electorate of Lyons. A prominent community activist, Jamieson is likely to draw votes from across the political spectrum and could cost the Liberals their fourth seat in the electorate. Lyons is currently represented by four Liberals, two Labor MPs and Green Independent Christine Milne.
The difficulty facing the current members of parliament is a lack of credibility on issues of social justice. Even the most loyal of Labor supporters will be hard pressed to ignore the Field government's al services, particularly education and health, and the large numbers of retrenchments from the public service.
Even the Tasmanian Trades and Labor Council is waiting for answers to a series of questions relating to job creation, public sector cuts, the sale of public assets and industrial relations legislation before deciding which, if any, of the political groupings it will support. The Green Independents are also having to cop some of the flak for Labor's record, as Green support kept Labor in power.
The Liberals, whose traditional role as the manager of capitalism has been stolen by Labor, may actually gain support by criticising Labor and remaining silent in relation to their own social policies.
A key axis of debate is conservation versus development, with Liberal threats to mine national parks earning loud condemnation from Labor as well as the Greens. The Liberals' promise of three new pulp mills has met with howls of scepticism rather than rage, given the depressed state of the world pulp market.
A feature of this election is that all parties are promising "ecologically sustainable" development, the term now being used so loosely that it is almost devoid of meaning.