By Anne O'Callaghan
AUCKLAND — Twenty-seven parties are competing for parliamentary seats in the October 12 elections, the first to be held under the new MMP (mixed member proportionate) system. According to national director of the Alliance Matt McCarten, the challenge is to make the election a contest between National, Labour, New Zealand First and themselves.
McCarten told Green Left Weekly that the Alliance is consistently scoring 10-12% in the polls. Winston Peters' New Zealand First is on 25-30%, Labour around 16% and the Nationals around 40%.
Under MMP, everyone has two votes, one for the local MP and one for a list decided upon by the parties. McCarten said that constructing the list absorbed a lot of the Alliance's energy, but that it is now focusing on the issues. "It's been part of a maturing process. In some ways the Alliance has always had it a little easy ... people can get distracted at times and take their eye off the main game."
McCarten said that the five-year-old Alliance has been somewhat overshadowed by Peters, who has taken a strong populist line. "But we are starting to see a decline in his support [as] he has started to back away from his earlier positions on asset sales and against foreign investment."
New Zealand First rose from 5% to 30% in the polls largely because of the party's strong anti-immigration platform. McCarten told Green Left that the Nationals' policy is to open the doors to those with half a million dollars to invest. "People are buying their way in. New Zealanders are very resentful about that, particularly the unemployed. Peters has been able to pitch at that.
"In reality, this category amounts to only 2000-3000 immigrants, but the perception is that they are taking all the jobs. We were one of the few parties which didn't engage [in the debate] and, in the short and medium term, we lost because of it."
The New Zealand Labour Party has not polled over 25% since the last election and has been at 16% for some months. Labour, McCarten said, "has been in terminal mode since the New Labour Party broke from it in 1989" and looks increasingly like an adjunct to the government.
"No-one seems to be in charge of strategy; they are simply going through the motions. The party base is very small now. At the end of last year, it had only 5000 members; 10 years ago it was 80,000-100,000."
There are no parties to the left of the Alliance contesting the elections. "There has been a proliferation of parties, but only four parties are getting over the 5% margin. That's probably going to remain the case."
Health and education are two of the main issues. The Alliance is the only party to advocate free health and free education from preschool to tertiary. McCarten said that this will be funded by changes to the taxation system. "Many people don't realise that we want move from a regressive to a progressive tax system. This will mean that 70% of New Zealanders will be paying less tax."
Their grassroots campaign is now moving into full swing. "We'll be doorknocking our manifesto to every house in the country. And we're doing all the other things you'd expect — billboards, leaflets, radio and television advertisements and street meetings."
The Alliance has launched a forestry petition which builds support for the environment and raises questions about asset sales. "We need 250,000 signatures — 10% of the adult population — to have a referendum at the same time as the election. In the last three weeks, we've pulled in nearly 100,000 signatures. It's a building exercise and it's about the sale of our forests to overseas interests."
McCarten is reluctant to predict the election outcome. "I assume there will be four groups in parliament, with the Nationals the biggest. I'd be surprised if the Alliance got less than 15% on a bad day, and up to 20-25% on a good day. That translates into a minimum of 15 seats.
"I think the Nationals will get around 40% because they'll run a campaign on stability. This will have an effect because the opposition are seen as unstable. I think that people will vote conservatively for their local MPs; they'll put their party vote to the party or the leader they have the most confidence in. The job of the Alliance is to get that party vote."
The Alliance has had extensive debate on the relationship between MPs and the party. "We are clear on MPs being our representatives and not our masters. It is very important that all our leadership isn't stuck in the parliamentary caucus, and that the caucus must be accountable to the national council of the Alliance and not the other way round.
"We don't see it as two parties — the parliamentary and the organisational — which is what most social democratic parties tend to evolve into.
"All MPs are required to tithe to the organisation NZ$7000-8000, which is the difference between the tax rates we articulate and what they pay under this government.
"Staff appointments will be done collectively so that MPs don't set up private power bases. There will be joint meetings of the MPs with the leadership. The list is controlled by the membership and not by the constituency, so MPs know that if they play up, there is scope to bring them under wider discipline ... Any MP who does not vote for Alliance policy in our manifesto will be dismissed by the Alliance from its list. It's very important that this culture is built right from the start."
And beyond the elections? "The Alliance is an alliance of parties but it's also an entity in itself. Half the membership don't belong to parties, so it's a matter of establishing a role for the Alliance as an organisation and for the parties within the Alliance.
"The Alliance is clearly a left-of-centre formation and it has continued to move leftward. This is not because it's had the intention of doing so, but because the policies force it to confront the system that doesn't deliver."