The German federal elections took place on February 23. There were indeed good, bad and ugly aspects to the results. A record number of Germans — more than 83% of voters — turned out.
On the bad side: Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian right-wing coalition, the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), was elected with 28.6% of the vote. The CDU/CSU was led for 16 years by former Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The incumbent Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Olaf Scholz had been in power since 2021. It was part of a coalition government with the German Greens (die Gruenen) and the libertarian Free Democatic Party (FDP). Die Gruenen are the most conservative green party in Europe.
Coalition governments are a very common outcome of German elections.
Scholz served only one term. The SPD’s vote fell by 9.29%, placing it third behind the extreme right-wing Alternative Fuer Deutschland (Alternative for Germany, AfD). It was the SPD’s worst result in post-war history and Scholz is the most unpopular leader in post-war Germany.
On the ugly side: The AfD doubled its vote to 20.8% — an increase of 10.4%.
The AfD is anti-immigration, anti-European Union and anti-vaccines, and wants to take Germany out of the Euro currency and is critical of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
AfD leader Alice Weidel told the media that United States President Donald Trump is on the correct economic path and that the AfD — if in power — would also sack public servants. She accused the CDU/CSU of stealing many of the AfD’s policies and warned that if Merz continued working with the SPD and the Greens his government would collapse.
Some of the AfD’s state-based sections are considered an extreme security risk by the country’s security forces, and a court ruled that one of its leading members can legally be described as a “fascist”. Until recently, the Bundestag (parliament) was considering banning the AfD.
However, the CDU/CSU’s policies on immigration and refugees align nicely with the AfD’s. Prior to the election, Merz was testing out collaborating with AfD MPs on an ad hoc basis, using their support to try to push through restrictions on immigration in the Bundestag.
Merz wants to increase military aid to Ukraine, despite opposition to this among the population. Meanwhile, the AfD — like Trump — wants to re-establish relations with Russia.
What led to the election result?
Fear dominated the election. In particular, fear of a faltering economy was uppermost in voters’ minds. The former East German states are still much poorer than those that made up the former West Germany.
Despite the economic conditions, almost immediately after the SPD won the 2021 election it doubled the military budget, explaining that this was required to support Ukraine. That support became very unpopular as people saw prices rising, rents going up, job losses rising and cuts to welfare spending — the latter implemented to finance the war budget.
Military spending last year was the country’s highest ever. But ultimately much of that was used to send arms to Israel, which a majority are opposed to.
Another fear — fuelled by all the major parties in strident anti-refugee statements — is border security, immigration and crime rates. This is despite studies in the early 2000s showing little correlation between migration and crime rates. Some high-profile rape cases and terrorist attacks by refugees were used to inflame debates.
The AfD used these incidents to promote their slogan, “Frauen und Maedchen schuetzen” (“protect women and girls”). The party tries to appeal to “real men” to stand up for German values and guard German women, and promotes a traditional family with women having many children. Interestingly, Weidel is married to a Swiss-Sri Lankan woman.
The left
The good in all this was the rise in the vote for Die Linke (the Left), which increased its seats in federal parliament and achieved 8.77% of the vote, a rise of 3.87%.
Pollsters had been predicting Die Linke’s demise. However, this was the party’s third-best-ever result, which surprised many, because in the 2021 election it did not achieve the 5% threshold required to enter the Bundestag.
Julia Damphouse, writing in Jacobin, said: “This time, it’s looking like its parliamentary group will be at least sixty-strong, with six directly elected candidates including its first-ever MP in former West Berlin, in the working-class and multicultural Neukölln district. The candidate there was Ferat Koçak, a lifelong anti-racist activist and one of the party’s most outspoken figures on Palestine. Die Linke scored particularly well among first-time voters, scoring 27 percent among this group.
“Die Linke has no doubt benefited from a form of strategic voting among young and progressive voters who see it as the only party that would never join a coalition with Merz’s increasingly right-wing CDU. Both the Greens and SPD may now do just that.”
A split off from die Linke, Buendnis Sahra Wagenknecht (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, BSW) — which formed in January last year — achieved 4.97%. It failed to qualify for a seat in the Bundestag.
That means the left achieved a combined vote of just under 14%, or 1 in 7 voters. It benefited from a surge in younger voters, although many young people, especially in the former East German states, also voted for the AfD.
Challenges ahead
The AfD made most of its gains in the East, precisely because the left showed little interest in the concerns of ordinary people. Die Linke was preoccupied for about two years with in-fighting, which ultimately led to the split and formation of the BSW. After the split, Die Linke regrouped and refocused.
Die Linke’s campaign highlighted six issues: peace, gender equality, education, social justice and a fair tax system, ecological sustainability and equality between east and west Germany.
The party systematically knocked on doors to connect with workers and their communities. This proved to be very successful and the party has continued to doorknock since the election to maintain connections to local communities and draw people into activity.
Complementing this tactic was an effective social media campaign and “Mission Silverlocks” (Silberlocke), referring to the campaigning by old party stalwarts such as Thuringia’s Bodo Ramelow — consistently voted the most popular politician in that state — and Gregor Gysi — one of the country’s most outstanding public speakers and debaters.
While the result for Die Linke is inspiring, according to the Independent, young people aged 18–24 are most likely to support Die Linke (25%), but least likely to support the centre-left SPD (12%). The AfD, meanwhile, has relatively consistent support across all age groups; except for over 70s, where just 10% voted for the party.
About 38% of blue-collar workers voted for the AfD and one of the challenges for the left is to win these working-class voters back.
Public debate about immigration under a right-wing CDU/CSU government and with a strong AfD will become heated and treacherous. More welfare cuts and job losses are also ahead, making the job of Die Linke and other leftists vital and daunting.