BY REIHANA MOHIDEEN
MANILA — In November alone, more than 300,000 demonstrators here have called for the resignation or sacking of President Joseph Estrada (known as Erap). The mass protests have continued to put pressure on the regime and have deepened the split in the ruling class.
On November 4, 100,000 people attended a prayer rally called by former president Cory Aquino and Catholic Archbishop Cardinal Sin. On November 14, and again on November 30, 160,000 people demonstrated. On both days, thousands rallied in cities and towns across the country.
The Estrada regime responded by mobilising its supporters in Christian fundamentalist organisations for a Manila prayer rally. The rally attracted 1 million people. However, many people were paid hefty sums of money to attend.
A broad range of political forces, ranging from the anti-Estrada wing of the ruling class — the "yellow" forces of Aquino and the Catholic Church — to left-wing political parties and mass organisations, have mobilised through informal collaboration and several formal alliances.
The three main alliances involved are: RIO (Resign, Impeach, Oust), which consists of the main opposition capitalist party Lakas-NUCD and Bayan, the broad front aligned with the Maoist Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP); KOMPIL (Congress of the Filipino People), an alliance led by social-democrats in alliance with the "yellow" forces of Cory Aquino; and PARE (People's Action to Remove Erap), an alliance of left and some social-democratic forces.
While calling for the resignation (and sometimes for the ouster of Erap), RIO supports vice-president and Lakas-NUCD member Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (known as GMA) as Estrada's replacement. This has been publicly supported by the CPP leadership and CPP members enforce this line strictly, even discouraging militant chants against GMA at rallies organised by RIO. KOMPIL has the same basic position as RIO.
In contrast, PARE is calling for the sacking of the Estrada regime and the rejection of GMA as replacement. PARE calls for a government of the people as an alternative to the Estrada regime i.e. PARE campaigns for an extra-constitutional solution to the crisis.
The pressure of the mass movement has forced Congress to begin impeachment proceedings against Estrada on corruption and bribery charges, and for violation of the constitution. The impeachment charges have passed the lower house and are now being heard by the Senate.
The impeachment trial of the president is set to begin on December 7. Estrada still has the numbers in the Senate and there is general scepticism about the outcome of the Senate hearings. Plans are being made for daily mobilisations outside the Senate in December.
Divide and Rule
The government has launched a red-baiting campaign in an attempt to split the opposition. Leading members of the regime have accused communists of "infiltrating" the anti-government alliances and manipulating the "moderate" forces. Four organisations have been named as "communist infiltrators" and "enemies of the state" — Bayan, Sanlakas, the Socialist Party of Labor (SPP) and the Movement for National Democracy (KPD).
SPP chairperson Sonny Melencio said in response: "These are divide-and-rule tactics to isolate the socialist forces from the broad anti-Erap movement. These are classic tactics used by dictators, from Hitler to Marcos, and are aimed at destroying the entire opposition.
"The existing constitution, the so-called 'Cory constitution' forged through the people's power rebellion of 1986, recognises the right of people to change the government by direct mass intervention or extra-constitutional means. In calling for the ouster of the regime we are reclaiming this right to change the government through people's power.
"The SPP has been labelled as an 'enemy of the state'. We maintain that we are truly an enemy of this despotic state but we are, however, the true friends of the people."
The regime's tactics have partly succeeded. Some left organisations have called for the "reform" of the regime under the guise that the opposition does not offer a viable alternative. The National Federation of Labor Unions (NAFLU), which has traditionally been a part of the progressive labour movement, endorsed a full-page advertisement in the leading English daily Inquirer calling on the regime to reform.
NAFLU president Ka Simo Carullo is also the president of Alab Katipunan, a broad front aligned with the Revolutionary Workers Party (RWP). Alab Katipunan has followed NAFLU by placing prominent newspaper advertisements rejecting the anti-Estrada movement, calling on the people not to get involved in the "quarrels" of the "trapos" (traditional politicians) and urging the people to put forward their "day-to-day demands" instead.
A coup scenario
Meanwhile, the crisis in the ruling class continues to deepen. Sections of the Armed Forces of the Philippines have made it known that they do not support the Estrada regime. The Philippine National Police, on the other hand, is under the control of the Estrada regime's supporters.
A group called the New Democratic Alliance (NDA), which consists of sections of the armed forces including the Revolutionary Nationalist Alliance (RAM), which has a history of coup plots against the former Aquino government, has called for a civilian-military junta. RAM members have been prominent participants at some of the rallies organised by RIO. RAM is amenable to a government headed by GMA.
An SPP leaflet issued in response to this threat stated: "The SPP will resist any coup attempt by the military. A coup will be used against the people and the mass movement. Its intention is to have GMA as the figurehead president while the military takes full control. Groups such as the NDA only project the wishes of the right-wing nationalists within the army and the government. We call on the broad mass movement to be alert to this threat. We must unite against the possibility of a coup."