Turkish Islamist party trims radical rhetoric

By Jennifer Thompson Statements by leaders of the Islamist Refah (Welfare) Party since they won the greatest number of votes in Turkey's December 24 elections have considerably toned down their pre-election radicalism. Refah won 21.38% of the vote to take 158 seats in the 550-seat parliament, ahead of the two main centre right parties. The popularity of Refah has grown over the last couple of years because of dissatisfaction with the austerity and privatisation program pursued by Prime Minister Tansu Ciller's True Path Party (DYP). The program was prescribed by the International Monetary Fund and linked to a 1994 stand-by loan agreement in response to an economic crisis that included inflation of 126%. As well as privatising state economic enterprises, the program sought to reduce inflation to 40% by the end of 1995 by cutting public spending. The fifth tranche of the loan was paid by the IMF in September, but two days later Ciller's coalition government with the social democratic Republic People's Party (CHP) collapsed. Ciller then established a right-wing minority coalition government which subsequently collapsed over a continuing strike by public sector workers for a much needed pay rise, and elections were called for December 24. While the DYP and Motherland Party (ANAP) — which received 19.65% and 19.18% of the vote respectively — have very similar policies aimed at economic "modernisation" through deficit reduction, privatisation and trade liberalisation with Europe, they have been unable to form a coalition largely because of the intense hostility between Ciller and ANAP leader Mesut Yilmaz. They have come under heavy pressure from Turkish big business and the military to form such a coalition, which, with support from a minority party, would have a majority of parliamentary seats. The social base of Refah is partly those Turkish workers and peasants hit hardest by government austerity, as well as middle and small business people who will pay the price of the customs union with Europe and a section of the Kurdish population repelled by the social democratic parties' accommodation to the chauvinist war against the Kurdish national insurgency. Refah stood in opposition to corruption and the nationalist and pro-western integration policies that many voters identified as the source of their suffering. "This is the end of the republican period", said Refah deputy leader Abdullah Gul prior to the elections. "If 60% of Ankara's population is living in shacks, then the secular system has failed and we definitely want to change it." Prior to the elections, Refah leader Necmettin Erbakan promised to end the 11-year war against the Kurdish insurgency, withdraw from NATO, scrap the customs union with Europe and end the payment of interest on loans. His tune had changed by the time of a January 5 press conference, as Refah began to try to form a government coalition. "A powerful Turkey is arising, which will become a dependable partner for the west and the whole world", he said. Through continuing participation in NATO, he said, Turkey would help in the alliance's search for a new identity. Now, rather than ending the customs union with Europe, approved by the EU on December 13 and due to take effect from January 1, Refah would renegotiate terms for agricultural exports and EU control over Turkey's trading relations with third countries. As it stands, the customs union involves eliminating Turkish tariffs on imports, which will cost the government an estimated $1.5 billion in revenue and open the economy to much greater foreign investment. Erbakan also pledged to honour the $73.61 billion national debt, which is estimated to eat up to half of all government revenue in servicing. Erbakan said Refah would "remove the obstacles to production, [and] develop the private sector". State economic enterprises would be privatised and the funds used to boost production. But he did renew his promise to end the military's war against the Kurds by acknowledging their identity and cultural rights. This vicious war has been costing the Turkish government $8-10 billion annually — between 30 and 35% of government revenue. A February 20 deadline for the proclamation of a government is fast approaching, and the prospect of a new election has added to pressure on Refah to make itself more appealing to Turkish big business, and on True Path and Motherland to reach agreement.