By Conor Twyford
WELLINGTON — An election as early as September is now on the cards in New Zealand following the resignation on April 23 of the New Zealand First MP for Hawkes Bay, Michael Laws.
Laws, who left the National Party in March to join centre-right New Zealand First, announced his resignation after admitting that he had covered up for three weeks the fact that his secretary had signed a fake signature on a poll commissioned by the Napier City Council. The Audit Office has also found that Laws breached the law in failing to declare his wife's shareholding in the polling company commissioned by Laws, and is now asking further questions about Laws' use of his electorate office account to pay for the poll.
Laws' resignation follows closely on the heels of a Colmar-Brunton/One Network News poll on the same day, which shows New Zealand First's rapid rise over recent weeks to second place behind National, with Labour trailing at third and the Alliance now at fourth.
Led by Winston Peters, New Zealand First has over the past two months run a blatantly racist campaign focused on attracting the anti-Asian vote.
Peters has gained support in the polls by appealing to ordinary New Zealanders' sense that they have lost autonomy and sovereignty in their own country. However, instead of focusing on the real reasons for this loss — the massive sell-off of the country's assets and deregulation of the economy over the past 12 years of conservative rule — Peters has chosen to scapegoat migrants.
The danger of his incendiary tactics is highlighted by the coincidence of this campaign with vicious attacks in recent weeks on families within the Somali refugee community in both Auckland and Christchurch.
While Labour sits on 18%, New Zealand First has risen from 8 to 22% in the last two months. National still leads on 40%. Meanwhile, the Alliance has slipped to 11%, from a February poll rating of 22%.
While Peters and New Zealand First continue to capitalise on their anti-immigration campaign, the Alliance must now work on rebuilding its support and strengthening its position as the only viable left-wing party in the spectrum of parties (now 19 in total).
Until April 23, when Laws resigned, the National government was considering going to the polls in mid-to-late October. With Laws' resignation, a by-election could be held in Hawkes Bay, but this could be avoided if a general election were held within the next six months. There are risks in a by-election for National, as it would give New Zealand First a platform to continue its roll, which is unlikely to hold out till October.